Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

11/4 Game 2

Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +28.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Kosuke Nagai● Masato Hagiwara● Genta Takeuchi● Namba Shibukawa0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Kosuke● Masato● Genta● Namba
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMasato Hagiwara
1st-place chance
Genta Takeuchi
1st-place chance
Namba Shibukawa
1st-place chance
Kosuke Nagai
1st-place chance
Masato Hagiwara
Expected pt change
Genta Takeuchi
Expected pt change
Namba Shibukawa
Expected pt change
Kosuke Nagai
Expected pt change
East 1Masato Hagiwara ron 7,700 from Namba Shibukawa26%24%25%25%+22.5-0.4-21.2-0.9
East 1, 1 honbaNamba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara41%23%13%23%-9.40.0+7.3+2.0
East 2Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,00034%24%16%26%-4.1-15.9+24.8-4.7
East 3Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,00030%15%32%23%-8.5-6.1-13.3+27.9
East 4Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,00023%11%21%45%-10.4-6.9-11.3+28.7
East 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw12%5%9%74%-6.5+2.8+6.1-2.5
South 1, 2 honbaGenta Takeuchi tsumo 2,7009%6%12%74%-5.9+6.4-3.9+3.4
South 2Exhaustive draw4%6%8%82%-5.0-4.5+9.3+0.2
South 3, 1 honbaGenta Takeuchi ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa2%2%12%84%-3.2+25.8-27.5+5.0
South 4Namba Shibukawa tsumo 1,1001%3%1%95%-12.7+4.3+8.1+0.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)