Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/4 Game 2
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +28.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 7,700 from Namba Shibukawa | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +22.5 | -0.4 | -21.2 | -0.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,600 from Masato Hagiwara | 41% | 23% | 13% | 23% | -9.4 | 0.0 | +7.3 | +2.0 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 34% | 24% | 16% | 26% | -4.1 | -15.9 | +24.8 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 15% | 32% | 23% | -8.5 | -6.1 | -13.3 | +27.9 |
| East 4 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 11% | 21% | 45% | -10.4 | -6.9 | -11.3 | +28.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 5% | 9% | 74% | -6.5 | +2.8 | +6.1 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 2,700 | 9% | 6% | 12% | 74% | -5.9 | +6.4 | -3.9 | +3.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 6% | 8% | 82% | -5.0 | -4.5 | +9.3 | +0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 5,200 from Namba Shibukawa | 2% | 2% | 12% | 84% | -3.2 | +25.8 | -27.5 | +5.0 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 3% | 1% | 95% | -12.7 | +4.3 | +8.1 | +0.3 |