Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/4 Game 2
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+60.1pt). The game was decided in East 4: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +30.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Takeuchi Genta 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Takeuchi Genta Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 7,700 from Shibukawa Namba | 24% | 25% | 23% | 28% | +21.7 | +1.0 | -20.2 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,600 from Hagiwara Masato | 40% | 24% | 12% | 24% | -8.9 | +2.3 | +5.9 | +0.7 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,000 | 34% | 26% | 15% | 25% | -5.4 | -18.4 | +27.3 | -3.5 |
| East 3 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 30% | 15% | 32% | 23% | -8.2 | -6.4 | -11.0 | +25.7 |
| East 4 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 11% | 23% | 43% | -10.0 | -7.1 | -13.2 | +30.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 11% | 6% | 9% | 74% | -6.1 | +2.0 | +6.6 | -2.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takeuchi Genta tsumo 2,700 | 9% | 6% | 12% | 74% | -7.7 | +7.5 | -3.1 | +3.3 |
| South 2 | Draw | 3% | 6% | 9% | 82% | -1.3 | -7.1 | +7.3 | +1.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takeuchi Genta ron 5,200 from Shibukawa Namba | 2% | 1% | 12% | 85% | -4.7 | +27.4 | -27.6 | +5.0 |
| South 4 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 3% | 0% | 96% | -12.8 | +4.5 | +8.5 | -0.2 |