Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

11/6 Table B Game 1

Tojyo Rio finished 1st (+66.8pt). The game was decided in South 3: Tojyo Rio ron 18,000 from Asami Maki, which moved Tojyo Rio's expected points by +37.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Tojyo Rio● Asami Maki● Setokuma Naoki● Hinata Aiko0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Tojyo● Asami● Setokuma● Hinata
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultAsami Maki
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Hinata Aiko
1st-place chance
Asami Maki
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Hinata Aiko
Expected pt change
East 1Tojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Asami Maki26%25%24%25%-31.5-0.3+32.0-0.3
East 2Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,0008%22%48%21%-9.4+18.1-4.4-4.4
East 2, 1 honbaAsami Maki ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio5%34%42%19%+22.0-3.3-19.1+0.3
East 3Draw14%35%29%22%+5.2-4.9+1.9-2.2
East 3, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 2,000 from Asami Maki17%31%31%21%-8.8+14.8-3.1-2.8
East 4Hinata Aiko tsumo 3,00012%44%26%18%-4.9-3.7-4.8+13.5
East 4, 1 honbaHinata Aiko ron 7,700 from Tojyo Rio10%39%23%28%-0.3+0.4-21.9+21.8
East 4, 2 honbaHinata Aiko tsumo 18,0009%38%10%43%-10.7-19.6-12.1+42.4
East 4, 3 honbaDraw2%9%2%86%-3.1-1.7+5.8-1.1
South 1, 4 honbaTojyo Rio ron 2,000 from Asami Maki1%7%3%89%-12.3+0.8+10.3+1.2
South 2Draw0%6%4%91%+1.8+2.00.0-3.8
South 2, 1 honbaTojyo Rio tsumo 6,4000%8%4%88%-4.9-12.3+17.8-0.6
South 3Tojyo Rio ron 18,000 from Asami Maki0%2%7%91%-20.2-6.8+37.9-10.9
South 3, 1 honbaAsami Maki tsumo 2,0000%1%35%64%+3.3-0.7-7.2+4.6
South 4Tojyo Rio tsumo 4,0000%0%23%76%-0.8-1.1+35.3-33.4

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)