Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/7 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+66.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaki Asai tsumo 1,100 | 26% | 25% | 22% | 27% | -4.0 | -3.8 | +2.3 | +5.5 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 3,000 | 23% | 22% | 25% | 30% | -1.9 | +9.3 | -3.4 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | HIRO Shibata ron 5,200 from Aiko Hinata | 22% | 28% | 23% | 27% | -18.0 | -1.9 | +18.4 | +1.5 |
| East 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 26% | 35% | 27% | +25.9 | -3.7 | -16.6 | -5.6 |
| East 4 | Takaki Asai tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 25% | 23% | 24% | -11.7 | -16.8 | -10.7 | +39.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from HIRO Shibata | 15% | 13% | 14% | 58% | -1.1 | +15.4 | -14.9 | +0.6 |
| South 1 | Takaki Asai ron 3,900 from HIRO Shibata | 15% | 18% | 8% | 59% | -3.0 | +0.3 | -9.4 | +12.1 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 6,000 | 7% | 14% | 4% | 75% | -5.1 | +16.1 | -4.7 | -6.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 2,600 from Futoshi Watanabe | 6% | 25% | 3% | 66% | +7.0 | -10.9 | -1.2 | +5.1 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 13% | 4% | 76% | -9.3 | +45.6 | -13.0 | -23.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 75% | 0% | 24% | -1.3 | -0.5 | -1.4 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Takaki Asai | 1% | 71% | 0% | 28% | -0.5 | +16.8 | -0.3 | -16.1 |