Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/7 Table B Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+69.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +26.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +8.2 | -0.4 | -8.3 | +0.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Kana Nakada | 32% | 24% | 19% | 25% | -24.2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | +26.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 22% | 18% | 46% | -3.8 | +7.6 | -1.7 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 27% | 17% | 44% | -1.8 | +4.7 | +0.4 | -3.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 11% | 31% | 18% | 40% | -1.1 | -25.0 | +26.1 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date ron 6,400 from Akina Mizuhara | 11% | 14% | 34% | 41% | +2.9 | -16.3 | -3.0 | +16.4 |
| East 4 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 6% | 28% | 55% | -6.9 | -6.3 | +26.4 | -13.2 |
| South 1 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 3% | 55% | 36% | +29.8 | -7.9 | -11.6 | -10.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 2,000 | 22% | 3% | 44% | 31% | -5.4 | -2.5 | +10.4 | -2.5 |
| South 2 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 3% | 56% | 26% | -6.2 | -10.6 | +24.5 | -7.6 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,200 from Kana Nakada | 3% | 0% | 89% | 9% | -12.7 | +6.5 | +0.8 | +5.4 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,200 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 0% | 92% | 8% | -0.8 | -4.2 | +6.9 | -1.9 |