Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/7 Table B Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+67.0pt). The game was decided in South 4: Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +39.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -10.9 | -2.0 | -3.3 | +16.2 |
| East 2 | Yu Suzuki ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 18% | 24% | 22% | 36% | -0.5 | -4.5 | +3.3 | +1.7 |
| East 3 | Yu Suzuki ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 18% | 19% | 25% | 38% | +1.5 | +0.3 | +33.1 | -34.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 19% | 52% | 14% | -2.6 | -2.7 | +7.3 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 15% | 59% | 12% | -3.3 | -4.6 | +4.9 | +3.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 12% | 65% | 12% | -2.5 | -2.1 | +7.2 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,600 from Yu Suzuki | 9% | 9% | 72% | 10% | -1.9 | +11.8 | -8.7 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 10% | 16% | 64% | 11% | -25.9 | -0.9 | -3.1 | +30.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 14% | 58% | 25% | -1.4 | -2.6 | -5.3 | +9.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 14% | 51% | 32% | -2.0 | -1.4 | +2.7 | +0.7 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Mari Takamiya tsumo 1,100 | 3% | 13% | 53% | 32% | -2.3 | +7.5 | +1.4 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Yu Suzuki ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 3% | 15% | 57% | 25% | -4.3 | -3.3 | +4.8 | +2.7 |
| South 2 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Kosuke Nagai | 0% | 12% | 63% | 25% | -3.5 | +5.7 | -0.6 | -1.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 15% | 61% | 24% | +0.2 | +5.7 | +0.6 | -6.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 18% | 64% | 18% | 0.0 | +8.5 | -2.7 | -5.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 25% | 59% | 15% | -1.3 | +4.1 | +0.5 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 28% | 58% | 14% | -1.4 | -30.7 | +0.5 | +31.6 |
| South 3 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 5% | 58% | 38% | +8.2 | -4.7 | -1.0 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki | 0% | 3% | 66% | 31% | +1.0 | +4.8 | -45.6 | +39.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,900 from Mari Takamiya | 0% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +2.7 | -10.4 | +8.3 | -0.6 |