Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/14 Table B Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in East 3: Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Shota Akutsu, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +32.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Shota Akutsu 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Shota Akutsu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shota Akutsu tsumo 16,000 | 27% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -23.3 | -10.7 | -9.1 | +43.0 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 9% | 15% | 15% | 62% | +0.8 | -24.3 | +21.9 | +1.6 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Shota Akutsu | 8% | 4% | 26% | 62% | -0.2 | +2.3 | +32.5 | -34.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 6% | 61% | 25% | +2.0 | +1.5 | -1.7 | -1.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kana Nakada ron 3,900 from Shota Akutsu | 9% | 6% | 61% | 24% | +13.7 | -1.5 | +2.2 | -14.4 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Shota Akutsu | 13% | 6% | 66% | 14% | -2.5 | +21.0 | +3.5 | -21.9 |
| South 2 | Shota Akutsu tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 11% | 73% | 7% | -11.0 | -23.1 | -0.9 | +35.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 2% | 75% | 18% | -4.2 | +2.5 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 2% | 1% | 82% | 15% | -17.6 | +13.5 | +5.6 | -1.4 |