Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/17 Game 1
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+99.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +25.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +17.1 | -6.4 | -5.5 | -5.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 21% | +28.0 | -7.3 | -10.7 | -10.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Aiko Hinata | 62% | 14% | 12% | 12% | +16.3 | -1.6 | +0.5 | -15.2 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,500 from Daisuke Suzuki | 76% | 10% | 8% | 5% | +4.7 | -5.5 | +0.9 | 0.0 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 81% | 6% | 8% | 5% | -12.9 | -1.1 | +15.7 | -1.7 |
| East 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 69% | 8% | 17% | 6% | -4.2 | -7.0 | +16.1 | -5.0 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 64% | 5% | 26% | 5% | -5.0 | +1.7 | +24.2 | -20.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 49% | 4% | 46% | 1% | -15.0 | -6.4 | +25.6 | -4.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 24% | 2% | 75% | 0% | +25.1 | +1.3 | -9.5 | -16.8 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 46% | 1% | 53% | 0% | +1.9 | +0.2 | -5.7 | +3.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 52% | 1% | 47% | 0% | -11.3 | -0.8 | +19.5 | -7.4 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 28% | 1% | 71% | 0% | -19.5 | +0.5 | +19.2 | -0.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 0% | 97% | 0% | -1.3 | -5.7 | +7.5 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -2.2 | -1.9 | +7.1 | -3.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +0.4 | +6.3 | -6.7 | 0.0 |
| South 4 | Daisuke Suzuki tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.5 | +3.9 | +0.3 | -3.7 |