Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/17 Game 1
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+99.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +27.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | +15.7 | -4.3 | -6.1 | -5.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 37% | 21% | 21% | 21% | +28.6 | -9.9 | -11.3 | -7.4 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Hinata Aiko | 62% | 13% | 11% | 14% | +14.9 | +1.7 | +0.4 | -17.0 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,500 from Suzuki Daisuke | 75% | 11% | 9% | 5% | +5.8 | -7.6 | +2.6 | -0.8 |
| East 1, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 81% | 7% | 8% | 4% | -13.3 | +0.2 | +15.2 | -2.2 |
| East 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 5,200 | 69% | 9% | 17% | 5% | -4.0 | -8.3 | +14.3 | -2.0 |
| East 3 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 64% | 4% | 25% | 6% | -6.6 | +0.9 | +27.5 | -21.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 48% | 4% | 48% | 1% | -15.4 | -4.7 | +25.0 | -4.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Hinata Aiko | 22% | 1% | 76% | 1% | +25.9 | +1.6 | -10.5 | -17.0 |
| East 4 | Hinata Aiko ron 2,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 46% | 2% | 53% | 0% | +2.3 | -0.9 | -5.0 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 51% | 1% | 48% | 0% | -12.7 | -0.6 | +20.8 | -7.6 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 25% | 1% | 74% | 0% | -17.6 | +0.3 | +17.0 | +0.3 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 5,200 | 4% | 0% | 96% | 0% | -1.3 | -5.2 | +7.7 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -2.3 | -2.1 | +6.6 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Suzuki Daisuke ron 5,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +0.5 | +6.4 | -6.0 | -0.9 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Daisuke tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -0.7 | +4.0 | +0.2 | -3.5 |