Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/20 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+77.7pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +33.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -6.8 | +2.0 | +2.7 | +2.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 21% | 26% | 27% | 27% | -3.2 | -22.0 | -2.7 | +27.8 |
| East 3 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 16% | 13% | 23% | 49% | -0.4 | +21.1 | -23.2 | +2.5 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Okada ron 5,200 from Hiroshi Daigo | 15% | 22% | 11% | 53% | +20.3 | -18.9 | -0.1 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 11% | 10% | 50% | +33.7 | -9.5 | -10.3 | -13.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 5% | 5% | 28% | +25.6 | -3.1 | -8.5 | -14.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 89% | 2% | 1% | 8% | +16.2 | +2.0 | +5.1 | -23.3 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000 | 98% | 1% | 1% | 1% | -8.3 | +27.2 | -8.8 | -10.1 |
| South 2 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 18,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 95% | 3% | 1% | 1% | -4.1 | +28.8 | +5.8 | -30.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Hiroshi Daigo | 86% | 14% | 0% | 0% | +4.8 | -6.4 | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| South 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,900 from Kenji Katsumata | 95% | 5% | 0% | 0% | +0.1 | -0.3 | +6.9 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 95% | 4% | 1% | 0% | -0.4 | -2.3 | -8.3 | +11.0 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | +0.5 | +0.3 | +5.3 | -6.0 |