Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Nakada Kana finished 1st (+68.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nakada Kana tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakada Kana's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Nakada Kana 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Nakada Kana Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 27% | 23% | 25% | -11.1 | +20.7 | -4.4 | -5.2 |
| East 2 | Nakada Kana tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 40% | 20% | 22% | -8.5 | -19.4 | +35.2 | -7.3 |
| East 3 | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,200 from Date Arisa | 11% | 23% | 48% | 17% | -1.8 | -7.5 | +0.2 | +9.1 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 18% | 49% | 21% | -7.7 | +27.3 | -5.2 | -14.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 8% | 38% | 42% | 12% | +2.1 | +1.0 | +3.5 | -6.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakada Kana ron 2,600 from Shibukawa Namba | 9% | 38% | 44% | 9% | -4.3 | -1.0 | +13.8 | -8.5 |
| South 2 | Draw | 3% | 31% | 61% | 5% | +3.6 | +2.4 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 4% | 36% | 56% | 4% | -2.4 | +9.5 | -5.1 | -2.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Nakada Kana ron 5,200 from Shiratori Sho | 3% | 47% | 47% | 3% | -11.2 | -9.8 | +18.3 | +2.7 |
| South 3 | Nakada Kana tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 25% | 73% | 3% | -2.4 | -8.3 | +13.3 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 0% | 9% | 90% | 1% | +8.3 | -0.5 | +1.3 | -9.1 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 5% | 94% | 1% | +4.3 | +1.4 | +2.6 | -8.3 |