Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/21 Game 1
Kana Nakada finished 1st (+68.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000, which moved Kana Nakada's expected points by +35.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -11.6 | +22.3 | -6.4 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 42% | 20% | 22% | -7.5 | -20.9 | +35.1 | -6.8 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,200 from Arisa Date | 12% | 23% | 47% | 18% | -1.9 | -5.7 | -0.4 | +8.0 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 19% | 47% | 22% | -7.2 | +26.6 | -4.7 | -14.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 40% | 40% | 12% | +2.2 | +1.4 | +3.0 | -6.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 2,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 10% | 39% | 43% | 8% | -5.9 | -2.6 | +15.9 | -7.4 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 31% | 61% | 5% | +5.1 | +3.2 | -3.6 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 35% | 57% | 4% | -3.1 | +8.8 | -4.5 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kana Nakada ron 5,200 from Sho Shiratori | 3% | 46% | 48% | 3% | -11.2 | -8.3 | +17.6 | +1.9 |
| South 3 | Kana Nakada tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 26% | 71% | 2% | -2.6 | -8.7 | +13.8 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 9% | 90% | 1% | +8.6 | -1.2 | +1.1 | -8.5 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 5% | 94% | 1% | +4.4 | +1.6 | +2.7 | -8.7 |