Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/24 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+54.3pt). The game was decided in East 2, 2 honba: Arisa Date ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +24.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | +29.1 | -9.9 | -7.9 | -11.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 48% | 18% | 17% | 18% | -2.1 | +1.9 | -2.3 | +2.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from HIRO Shibata | 45% | 20% | 16% | 19% | 0.0 | -1.3 | +24.2 | -22.9 |
| East 3 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 45% | 17% | 29% | 9% | +30.6 | -7.8 | -18.0 | -4.8 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 79% | 7% | 10% | 4% | -3.8 | -7.1 | +23.9 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | HIRO Shibata ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 72% | 4% | 22% | 2% | -27.6 | -4.7 | +7.7 | +24.6 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 2,000 | 44% | 7% | 41% | 9% | +0.7 | -6.9 | +8.9 | -2.7 |
| South 3 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from HIRO Shibata | 42% | 1% | 50% | 7% | -1.8 | +7.8 | +4.1 | -10.1 |
| South 4 | HIRO Shibata ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 36% | 1% | 59% | 5% | -43.6 | -8.3 | +8.6 | +43.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 2,700 | 4% | 1% | 80% | 15% | -21.5 | +15.6 | +8.3 | -2.3 |