Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/25 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+85.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +32.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -11.2 | +21.8 | -4.8 | -5.8 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 17% | 41% | 22% | 20% | +1.8 | +27.5 | -1.9 | -27.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 2,000 | 13% | 66% | 14% | 7% | +2.2 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,900 | 12% | 67% | 15% | 6% | -1.8 | -4.0 | +9.0 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 62% | 19% | 6% | -1.3 | +0.9 | -3.0 | +3.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 12% | 64% | 17% | 7% | -0.8 | -2.5 | +7.7 | -4.3 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 63% | 21% | 5% | -15.0 | +0.6 | -4.4 | +18.8 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 5% | 67% | 19% | 8% | -25.3 | -7.3 | +32.1 | +0.4 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 51% | 43% | 6% | +1.7 | -9.2 | +17.1 | -9.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 0% | 27% | 70% | 3% | -5.7 | -16.8 | +30.3 | -7.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | -0.1 | +2.9 | -1.8 | -1.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | -4.0 | +0.7 | +4.9 | -1.7 |