Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

11/25 Game 2

Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+85.0pt). The game was decided in South 2: Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +30.4.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Kayamori Sayaka● Matsumoto Yoshihiro● Okada Sayaka● Kurosawa Saki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Kayamori● Matsumoto● Okada● Kurosawa
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMatsumoto Yoshihiro
1st-place chance
Okada Sayaka
1st-place chance
Kayamori Sayaka
1st-place chance
Kurosawa Saki
1st-place chance
Matsumoto Yoshihiro
Expected pt change
Okada Sayaka
Expected pt change
Kayamori Sayaka
Expected pt change
Kurosawa Saki
Expected pt change
East 1Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,00026%25%24%25%-13.0+21.9-4.4-4.4
East 2Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki14%43%21%22%+1.3+28.3-2.4-27.2
East 2, 1 honbaMatsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 2,00012%67%14%6%+4.5-4.3+0.6-0.8
East 3Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,90013%64%15%7%-0.8-2.9+8.6-4.9
East 3, 1 honbaDraw13%61%20%6%-2.2+3.1-5.5+4.6
East 4, 2 honbaKayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Okada Sayaka12%66%15%7%-1.3-2.6+9.0-5.1
South 1Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,00012%65%20%4%-16.1+0.2-3.2+19.1
South 2Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro4%68%18%10%-24.8-7.2+30.4+1.6
South 3Kayamori Sayaka ron 5,800 from Kurosawa Saki0%52%41%7%+2.2-9.9+19.2-11.5
South 3, 1 honbaKayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,0000%27%70%2%-5.9-16.6+30.3-7.8
South 3, 2 honbaDraw0%1%99%0%-0.2+2.4-1.9-0.2
South 4, 3 honbaKayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Kurosawa Saki0%0%100%0%-4.0+1.0+4.8-1.9

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)