Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
11/28 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+56.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +41.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +2.2 | -2.0 | -5.2 | +5.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 23% | 22% | 29% | -3.5 | +0.5 | -1.9 | +4.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaki Asai ron 5,200 from Sho Shiratori | 24% | 24% | 20% | 33% | -17.5 | -2.1 | +23.7 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 21% | 37% | 28% | +36.3 | -9.7 | -19.7 | -7.0 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 40% | 15% | 20% | 25% | +19.0 | -4.3 | -0.3 | -14.4 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 60% | 11% | 18% | 12% | -20.1 | -8.1 | -12.8 | +41.0 |
| South 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 6,000 | 35% | 9% | 12% | 45% | -5.9 | +17.7 | -4.7 | -7.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 1,500 from Takaki Asai | 31% | 18% | 12% | 39% | -0.9 | +6.0 | -6.6 | +1.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,200 | 31% | 20% | 9% | 41% | +20.7 | -13.3 | -3.9 | -3.6 |
| South 3 | Takaki Asai tsumo 12,000 | 53% | 8% | 7% | 31% | -11.3 | -15.3 | +40.6 | -13.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 41% | 5% | 28% | 25% | -4.2 | -1.7 | -35.3 | +41.1 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Takaki Asai | 22% | 2% | 1% | 75% | -4.6 | +5.4 | -14.7 | +14.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 91% | -3.7 | -17.6 | +23.0 | -1.8 |