Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/2 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+66.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +38.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 23% | 26% | 27% | -2.6 | -0.6 | -3.0 | +6.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 1,500 | 23% | 24% | 24% | 30% | -4.2 | +12.3 | -6.0 | -2.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Aikawa Megumu ron 2,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 21% | 31% | 19% | 29% | -10.6 | +9.8 | +3.1 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 38% | 21% | 27% | -7.6 | -13.3 | +24.4 | -3.4 |
| East 3 | Tojyo Rio ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 10% | 26% | 40% | 24% | +1.3 | +2.7 | -14.4 | +10.4 |
| East 4 | Aikawa Megumu ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 11% | 30% | 26% | 32% | -21.6 | +25.3 | -1.3 | -2.4 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 53% | 20% | 23% | +27.6 | -8.7 | -9.1 | -9.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 46% | 19% | 20% | +38.2 | -13.9 | -13.4 | -10.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,000 from Tojyo Rio | 41% | 31% | 13% | 16% | +14.7 | -1.8 | -0.9 | -12.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Aikawa Megumu ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 56% | 25% | 10% | 8% | -5.6 | +24.7 | +0.4 | -19.5 |
| South 2 | Draw | 43% | 46% | 8% | 3% | +8.1 | -3.9 | -2.1 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 53% | 40% | 5% | 2% | +26.6 | -11.5 | -3.1 | -12.0 |
| South 4 | Draw | 92% | 7% | 0% | 0% | -1.3 | -0.2 | -1.0 | +2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 6,000 | 91% | 9% | 0% | 0% | -2.9 | -3.0 | -4.5 | +10.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 12,000 from Aikawa Megumu | 90% | 8% | 0% | 2% | +0.8 | -24.1 | -10.6 | +33.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Date Arisa | 94% | 1% | 0% | 5% | +5.1 | +9.8 | -7.9 | -7.1 |