Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/2 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+66.6pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +40.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -5.8 | +0.2 | -1.7 | +7.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 1,500 | 22% | 26% | 22% | 30% | -2.1 | +7.1 | -5.3 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 20% | 29% | 21% | 30% | -11.0 | +11.4 | +3.1 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 37% | 22% | 27% | -6.5 | -10.8 | +21.7 | -4.4 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 11% | 28% | 37% | 24% | +0.5 | +0.4 | -11.2 | +10.2 |
| East 4 | Megumu Aikawa ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 12% | 28% | 28% | 32% | -21.7 | +27.3 | -1.5 | -4.1 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 53% | 22% | 21% | +27.9 | -8.8 | -11.3 | -7.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 47% | 19% | 20% | +40.7 | -15.3 | -12.5 | -12.9 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 44% | 31% | 11% | 14% | +12.0 | -0.9 | -0.9 | -10.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Megumu Aikawa ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 56% | 25% | 11% | 8% | -6.9 | +25.2 | +0.6 | -18.8 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 41% | 49% | 8% | 3% | +10.8 | -6.3 | -2.9 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 56% | 37% | 5% | 2% | +25.1 | -9.4 | -2.9 | -12.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 92% | 8% | 0% | 0% | -1.5 | -0.4 | -1.1 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 6,000 | 90% | 9% | 0% | 1% | -2.4 | -3.2 | -4.2 | +9.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 12,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 91% | 8% | 0% | 2% | +1.1 | -25.2 | -10.5 | +34.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 95% | 0% | 0% | 5% | +4.7 | +10.9 | -7.9 | -7.7 |