Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/4 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+61.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +41.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Miura 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Tomohiro Miura Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | +29.9 | -8.4 | -10.5 | -11.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 2,700 | 50% | 17% | 16% | 17% | -7.7 | -3.7 | +12.0 | -0.6 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Sayaka Okada | 43% | 15% | 24% | 18% | -7.5 | -0.4 | -1.4 | +9.3 |
| East 3 | Kosuke Nagai ron 2,900 from Tomohiro Miura | 37% | 16% | 24% | 24% | +1.6 | -9.0 | +10.3 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Tomohiro Miura tsumo 4,000 | 37% | 10% | 31% | 22% | -5.2 | +12.5 | -6.9 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 18% | 25% | 23% | -11.9 | -10.0 | -10.4 | +32.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 11% | 18% | 48% | +3.4 | -8.6 | +2.7 | +2.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 2,000 from Tomohiro Miura | 23% | 8% | 19% | 50% | +7.6 | -7.6 | +0.1 | -0.1 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 29% | 5% | 17% | 49% | -11.0 | -2.7 | -4.1 | +17.8 |
| South 2 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 3% | 11% | 72% | -3.3 | -9.2 | +10.9 | +1.6 |
| South 3 | Kosuke Nagai ron 2,900 from Sayaka Okada | 9% | 0% | 13% | 77% | -9.9 | +0.5 | +9.4 | 0.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 0% | 19% | 76% | -9.5 | -4.4 | +41.6 | -27.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,200 from Kosuke Nagai | 1% | 0% | 75% | 24% | -0.5 | -1.3 | -7.5 | +9.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 67% | 33% | +1.7 | +1.0 | -17.9 | +15.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 31% | 69% | +0.2 | -0.7 | +34.0 | -33.5 |