Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/4 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+61.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +40.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Miura Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Miura Tomohiro Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +28.3 | -9.4 | -10.3 | -8.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 2,700 | 48% | 17% | 18% | 18% | -5.8 | -2.3 | +9.5 | -1.4 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Okada Sayaka | 43% | 16% | 24% | 17% | -9.2 | -1.5 | +0.3 | +10.4 |
| East 3 | Nagai Kosuke ron 2,900 from Miura Tomohiro | 36% | 16% | 25% | 24% | +0.1 | -8.2 | +11.3 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Miura Tomohiro tsumo 4,000 | 34% | 11% | 33% | 22% | -1.3 | +10.4 | -6.7 | -2.4 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 17% | 27% | 21% | -10.6 | -9.2 | -15.2 | +35.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 24% | 10% | 16% | 49% | +3.8 | -9.2 | +2.8 | +2.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 2,000 from Miura Tomohiro | 26% | 7% | 15% | 51% | +5.0 | -5.8 | +1.1 | -0.3 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 5% | 16% | 50% | -10.7 | -2.8 | -4.0 | +17.5 |
| South 2 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 4,000 | 14% | 4% | 10% | 73% | -3.0 | -10.3 | +12.5 | +0.8 |
| South 3 | Nagai Kosuke ron 2,900 from Okada Sayaka | 10% | 0% | 14% | 76% | -10.5 | +0.9 | +10.6 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 0% | 20% | 74% | -9.5 | -4.4 | +40.8 | -26.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,200 from Nagai Kosuke | 1% | 0% | 76% | 23% | -0.4 | -1.1 | -7.9 | +9.4 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 68% | 31% | +1.4 | +0.9 | -18.8 | +16.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 0% | 30% | 69% | +0.1 | -0.6 | +34.6 | -34.1 |