Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Kazuma Ishii finished 1st (+63.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kazuma Ishii tsumo 18,000, which moved Kazuma Ishii's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,300 from Namba Shibukawa | 27% | 26% | 24% | 23% | -2.5 | -3.9 | +3.7 | +2.7 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 24% | 23% | 27% | 26% | -1.8 | +32.1 | -29.8 | -0.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 47% | 10% | 24% | -1.4 | -4.8 | +3.8 | +2.3 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 20% | 43% | 12% | 25% | -1.5 | +14.2 | -13.6 | +0.8 |
| East 4 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 18,000 | 17% | 57% | 5% | 21% | -14.5 | -22.5 | -8.6 | +45.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Kazuma Ishii | 8% | 24% | 3% | 65% | -1.4 | +7.7 | -0.7 | -5.7 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 32% | 2% | 60% | +33.0 | -13.6 | -7.8 | -11.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 27% | 25% | 2% | 47% | -3.1 | -3.2 | -4.1 | +10.3 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 19% | 1% | 60% | +9.8 | -7.1 | -2.0 | -0.7 |
| South 3 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 12% | 1% | 59% | -7.0 | -6.7 | -4.4 | +18.0 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 8% | 3% | 0% | 89% | 0.0 | -13.9 | +10.6 | +3.3 |