Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

12/4 Game 2

Kazuma Ishii finished 1st (+63.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kazuma Ishii tsumo 18,000, which moved Kazuma Ishii's expected points by +45.6.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 1End● Kazuma Ishii● Aki Nikaido● Namba Shibukawa● Masato Hagiwara0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Kazuma● Aki● Namba● Masato
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultAki Nikaido
1st-place chance
Namba Shibukawa
1st-place chance
Masato Hagiwara
1st-place chance
Kazuma Ishii
1st-place chance
Aki Nikaido
Expected pt change
Namba Shibukawa
Expected pt change
Masato Hagiwara
Expected pt change
Kazuma Ishii
Expected pt change
East 1Masato Hagiwara ron 1,300 from Namba Shibukawa27%26%24%23%-2.5-3.9+3.7+2.7
East 2Namba Shibukawa ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara24%23%27%26%-1.8+32.1-29.8-0.5
East 2, 1 honbaExhaustive draw20%47%10%24%-1.4-4.8+3.8+2.3
East 3, 2 honbaNamba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara20%43%12%25%-1.5+14.2-13.6+0.8
East 4Kazuma Ishii tsumo 18,00017%57%5%21%-14.5-22.5-8.6+45.6
East 4, 1 honbaNamba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Kazuma Ishii8%24%3%65%-1.4+7.7-0.7-5.7
South 1Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,0006%32%2%60%+33.0-13.6-7.8-11.6
South 1, 1 honbaKazuma Ishii ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara27%25%2%47%-3.1-3.2-4.1+10.3
South 2Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,00020%19%1%60%+9.8-7.1-2.0-0.7
South 3Kazuma Ishii tsumo 4,00028%12%1%59%-7.0-6.7-4.4+18.0
South 4Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa8%3%0%89%0.0-13.9+10.6+3.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)