Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/4 Game 2
Ishii Kazuma finished 1st (+63.0pt). The game was decided in East 4: Ishii Kazuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Ishii Kazuma's expected points by +48.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Ishii Kazuma 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Ishii Kazuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,300 from Shibukawa Namba | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -2.9 | -6.3 | +5.9 | +3.3 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 24% | 22% | 28% | 27% | -1.0 | +33.5 | -31.4 | -1.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Draw | 21% | 45% | 10% | 24% | -1.9 | -2.9 | +4.1 | +0.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 20% | 44% | 12% | 24% | -0.3 | +13.0 | -11.8 | -0.9 |
| East 4 | Ishii Kazuma tsumo 18,000 | 16% | 57% | 6% | 21% | -15.5 | -21.7 | -10.9 | +48.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Ishii Kazuma | 7% | 24% | 2% | 66% | +0.5 | +7.6 | -0.9 | -7.2 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 33% | 3% | 57% | +31.6 | -14.5 | -6.8 | -10.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Ishii Kazuma ron 2,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 27% | 24% | 2% | 47% | -5.6 | -0.6 | -3.3 | +9.5 |
| South 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 2,000 | 18% | 21% | 1% | 59% | +11.9 | -9.6 | -2.3 | 0.0 |
| South 3 | Ishii Kazuma tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 12% | 1% | 59% | -7.5 | -5.3 | -5.0 | +17.9 |
| South 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 8% | 4% | 0% | 88% | +0.1 | -14.5 | +10.6 | +3.8 |