Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/5 Game 1
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +31.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 27% | -20.7 | +35.5 | -7.8 | -7.0 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 53% | 17% | 20% | -5.3 | -12.1 | -3.5 | +20.9 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 40% | 17% | 35% | -6.7 | -14.9 | +31.5 | -10.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 8% | 27% | 38% | 28% | +8.1 | +6.2 | -2.0 | -12.3 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 34% | 36% | 19% | -1.5 | -0.7 | -2.1 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 10% | 33% | 35% | 23% | -2.3 | -11.1 | -1.7 | +15.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 25% | 34% | 33% | -8.8 | -10.1 | -12.7 | +31.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 14% | 18% | 63% | -3.5 | +3.5 | -0.4 | +0.4 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 15% | 17% | 65% | -10.0 | -5.4 | -6.8 | +22.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 5% | 4% | 90% | -6.6 | +27.4 | -11.4 | -9.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 19% | 4% | 77% | -1.0 | -5.8 | +3.6 | +3.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 0% | 10% | 5% | 86% | -0.2 | +22.2 | -15.6 | -6.4 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 30% | 0% | 70% | +6.8 | -13.7 | -0.1 | +7.0 |