Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/5 Game 1
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+61.3pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +35.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -19.7 | +34.1 | -7.0 | -7.3 |
| East 2 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 11% | 52% | 19% | 18% | -6.3 | -8.8 | -8.8 | +23.9 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 42% | 14% | 35% | -9.1 | -11.4 | +33.5 | -13.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 8% | 30% | 37% | 25% | +10.4 | +0.5 | +0.3 | -11.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 11% | 32% | 38% | 19% | -4.5 | +2.2 | -3.6 | +5.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 2,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 8% | 35% | 34% | 23% | -0.4 | -13.4 | -0.2 | +14.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 22% | 36% | 32% | -7.4 | -12.5 | -15.3 | +35.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Draw | 5% | 11% | 17% | 67% | -1.7 | +6.2 | -1.2 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 14% | 16% | 65% | -12.6 | -6.0 | -4.0 | +22.6 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 5% | 6% | 89% | -7.1 | +28.4 | -12.0 | -9.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 19% | 4% | 77% | -1.2 | -4.2 | +4.3 | +1.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 0% | 12% | 6% | 82% | +0.3 | +19.5 | -16.7 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 28% | 0% | 72% | +6.4 | -12.5 | +0.1 | +6.0 |