Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/5 Game 2
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +34.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 26% | -15.7 | -8.1 | -8.7 | +32.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 18% | 18% | 52% | +3.3 | +3.7 | -2.2 | -4.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 20% | 17% | 47% | -6.1 | -13.1 | -5.9 | +25.0 |
| East 3 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 6,000 | 8% | 8% | 11% | 73% | -2.4 | -5.9 | +13.0 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 7% | 16% | 69% | -9.2 | -11.6 | +34.7 | -13.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 4% | 43% | 47% | -9.0 | +21.4 | -10.3 | -2.2 |
| East 4 | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 4% | 12% | 35% | 49% | -19.2 | -0.3 | +27.8 | -8.3 |
| South 1 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 7% | 63% | 29% | -7.3 | -3.8 | +19.5 | -8.4 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 3% | 86% | 11% | -2.5 | +12.5 | -3.3 | -6.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 6% | 84% | 10% | +14.9 | -13.0 | -0.5 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 90% | 9% | -3.6 | -4.8 | -7.5 | +15.8 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 83% | 17% | -1.9 | +6.0 | +6.3 | -10.3 |