Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/5 Game 2
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +33.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -19.8 | -7.7 | -3.5 | +31.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 12% | 19% | 19% | 50% | +5.8 | +3.3 | -5.1 | -4.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 19% | 18% | 47% | -3.9 | -13.0 | -7.9 | +24.8 |
| East 3 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 6,000 | 10% | 8% | 10% | 72% | -5.5 | -6.5 | +16.4 | -4.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 8% | 18% | 67% | -9.5 | -10.6 | +33.8 | -13.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 4% | 43% | 47% | -9.0 | +21.3 | -10.5 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Nagai Kosuke ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 4% | 12% | 35% | 48% | -19.7 | -1.7 | +28.5 | -7.1 |
| South 1 | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 6% | 63% | 30% | -6.6 | -3.0 | +18.5 | -8.9 |
| South 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 2% | 85% | 12% | -2.9 | +12.9 | -3.3 | -6.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 6% | 83% | 11% | +15.0 | -13.6 | +0.1 | -1.5 |
| South 3 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 90% | 9% | -3.5 | -3.7 | -7.6 | +14.8 |
| South 4 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 83% | 17% | -1.9 | +5.6 | +6.2 | -9.9 |