Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/8 Game 2
Tojyo Rio finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in East 4: Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,000, which moved Tojyo Rio's expected points by +35.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -11.0 | +16.1 | -0.6 | -4.5 |
| East 2 | Draw | 17% | 37% | 23% | 22% | +6.1 | -6.1 | +2.7 | -2.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 7,800 | 21% | 32% | 26% | 21% | -9.0 | -7.2 | +24.2 | -7.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,500 from HIRO Shibata | 15% | 24% | 45% | 16% | -1.2 | -0.6 | +7.7 | -5.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | HIRO Shibata ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 14% | 22% | 53% | 12% | +0.7 | +1.5 | -14.4 | +12.3 |
| East 4 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 27% | 39% | 19% | +35.9 | -8.4 | -7.8 | -19.6 |
| South 1 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 7,800 | 42% | 20% | 30% | 9% | +22.0 | -8.5 | -7.8 | -5.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 65% | 12% | 18% | 6% | -13.6 | -5.7 | +24.2 | -4.8 |
| South 2 | HIRO Shibata ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 46% | 9% | 41% | 4% | +1.4 | -7.5 | +2.9 | +3.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 48% | 3% | 44% | 5% | +6.8 | +3.4 | -9.6 | -0.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 62% | 3% | 30% | 6% | -3.0 | +5.1 | -3.6 | +1.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 1,500 | 57% | 8% | 28% | 8% | +1.2 | -9.5 | -3.1 | +11.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari | 65% | 3% | 22% | 10% | +17.7 | -15.6 | -4.4 | +2.3 |