Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/8 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in East 4: Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +37.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -10.1 | +17.3 | -2.3 | -4.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 35% | 24% | 23% | +3.4 | -2.9 | +0.9 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 7,800 | 20% | 34% | 24% | 22% | -7.4 | -10.4 | +26.5 | -8.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,500 from HIRO Shibata | 16% | 23% | 46% | 16% | +0.6 | -0.4 | +6.5 | -6.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | HIRO Shibata ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 14% | 21% | 52% | 13% | -2.4 | +3.8 | -14.0 | +12.6 |
| East 4 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 26% | 39% | 20% | +37.0 | -9.6 | -7.7 | -19.7 |
| South 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 7,800 | 40% | 20% | 30% | 10% | +23.1 | -9.7 | -8.0 | -5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 66% | 11% | 18% | 5% | -13.7 | -5.2 | +23.9 | -5.0 |
| South 2 | HIRO Shibata ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 48% | 9% | 40% | 4% | +2.3 | -5.9 | +2.8 | +0.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 51% | 3% | 43% | 4% | +5.2 | +2.5 | -8.2 | +0.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 61% | 2% | 32% | 5% | -2.4 | +5.1 | -3.6 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | HIRO Shibata tsumo 1,500 | 58% | 7% | 29% | 7% | +1.3 | -10.6 | -3.7 | +13.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 1,000 from Mari Takamiya | 66% | 2% | 23% | 10% | +17.3 | -14.7 | -4.6 | +1.9 |