Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

12/8 Game 2

Tojyo Rio finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in East 4: Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,000, which moved Tojyo Rio's expected points by +35.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Tojyo Rio● Takamiya Mari● Nakabayashi Kei● HIRO Shibata0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Tojyo● Takamiya● Nakabayashi● HIRO
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Nakabayashi Kei
1st-place chance
HIRO Shibata
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Nakabayashi Kei
Expected pt change
HIRO Shibata
Expected pt change
East 1Takamiya Mari tsumo 4,00025%26%24%26%-11.0+16.1-0.6-4.5
East 2Draw17%37%23%22%+6.1-6.1+2.7-2.8
East 3, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 7,80021%32%26%21%-9.0-7.2+24.2-7.9
East 3, 2 honbaNakabayashi Kei ron 1,500 from HIRO Shibata15%24%45%16%-1.2-0.6+7.7-5.9
East 3, 3 honbaHIRO Shibata ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei14%22%53%12%+0.7+1.5-14.4+12.3
East 4Tojyo Rio tsumo 12,00015%27%39%19%+35.9-8.4-7.8-19.6
South 1Tojyo Rio tsumo 7,80042%20%30%9%+22.0-8.5-7.8-5.7
South 1, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,00065%12%18%6%-13.6-5.7+24.2-4.8
South 2HIRO Shibata ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari46%9%41%4%+1.4-7.5+2.9+3.2
South 3Draw48%3%44%5%+6.8+3.4-9.6-0.6
South 4, 1 honbaDraw62%3%30%6%-3.0+5.1-3.6+1.4
South 4, 2 honbaHIRO Shibata tsumo 1,50057%8%28%8%+1.2-9.5-3.1+11.4
South 4, 3 honbaTojyo Rio ron 1,000 from Takamiya Mari65%3%22%10%+17.7-15.6-4.4+2.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)