Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/11 Game 2
Rio Tojyo finished 1st (+68.4pt). The game was decided in East 3: Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Rio Tojyo's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -3.1 | -1.1 | -3.7 | +8.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 25% | 23% | 31% | +5.7 | +4.4 | -5.7 | -4.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,500 from Rio Tojyo | 27% | 26% | 19% | 27% | -1.9 | +5.5 | +0.1 | -3.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 24% | 31% | 19% | 25% | +3.9 | -13.9 | -1.4 | +11.4 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 28% | 22% | 18% | 32% | -3.4 | -1.3 | -24.8 | +29.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 15% | 5% | 61% | -2.0 | +0.3 | -2.0 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 7,800 | 17% | 15% | 5% | 63% | -4.6 | -7.8 | -5.8 | +18.1 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 10% | 7% | 2% | 82% | +15.8 | -1.6 | -13.2 | -1.0 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 5% | 0% | 80% | +5.2 | -2.9 | +0.9 | -3.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 19% | 5% | 1% | 76% | -4.6 | -0.2 | -4.3 | +9.1 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 88% | -11.5 | +24.7 | -5.1 | -8.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 13% | 1% | 80% | -1.7 | -6.4 | -1.4 | +9.5 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 3% | 2% | 0% | 94% | -2.3 | +4.2 | -3.5 | +1.6 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | +7.3 | -7.2 | -1.1 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 99% | +5.9 | -8.6 | +5.7 | -3.0 |