Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/11 Table B Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +31.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 3,900 | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | +9.5 | -2.1 | -5.0 | -2.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 32% | 22% | 22% | 23% | -18.3 | +31.9 | -6.8 | -6.8 |
| East 2 | Kazuma Ishii ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 18% | 45% | 18% | 19% | +3.8 | -3.0 | -1.6 | +0.9 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Okada tsumo 6,000 | 20% | 44% | 17% | 19% | -4.4 | -5.0 | +16.0 | -6.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Go Kobayashi | 18% | 41% | 26% | 16% | -0.4 | -2.2 | +12.4 | -9.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 17% | 37% | 35% | 11% | -4.2 | +25.8 | -15.6 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 64% | 18% | 7% | -4.5 | +4.0 | -2.1 | +2.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 68% | 15% | 8% | +3.1 | -2.6 | -3.0 | +2.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 65% | 15% | 9% | -5.6 | -3.3 | +23.0 | -14.0 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Go Kobayashi | 8% | 60% | 29% | 3% | -5.6 | -5.3 | +23.1 | -12.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 44% | 53% | 1% | +4.0 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 46% | 51% | 1% | -2.8 | +8.0 | -7.0 | +1.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 60% | 38% | 2% | +7.3 | +15.5 | -15.9 | -6.9 |