Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/12 Game 1
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+60.5pt). The game was decided in East 2: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 9,600, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +25.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | HIRO Shibata 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | HIRO Shibata Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 27% | 24% | 24% | +3.7 | -2.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 25% | 23% | 24% | -17.5 | -10.2 | +37.3 | -9.6 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 9,600 | 14% | 16% | 54% | 16% | -8.8 | +25.8 | -9.8 | -7.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Setokuma Naoki | 11% | 33% | 43% | 13% | +0.3 | +16.8 | -15.4 | -1.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Setokuma Naoki | 10% | 50% | 29% | 11% | -0.4 | +0.6 | -14.7 | +14.6 |
| East 3 | Draw | 10% | 51% | 20% | 19% | -1.5 | -1.8 | +7.2 | -3.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 50% | 23% | 17% | -5.7 | +22.0 | -12.8 | -3.5 |
| East 4 | HIRO Shibata ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 5% | 73% | 10% | 11% | +20.1 | +3.0 | -20.7 | -2.3 |
| South 1 | Draw | 9% | 79% | 5% | 8% | +5.3 | -2.4 | 0.0 | -2.9 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 75% | 5% | 7% | -19.7 | -5.7 | -11.5 | +36.9 |
| South 2 | HIRO Shibata ron 2,600 from Setokuma Naoki | 3% | 68% | 2% | 27% | +4.6 | +1.1 | -4.3 | -1.5 |
| South 3 | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 3% | 74% | 2% | 22% | +0.5 | +7.6 | -7.8 | -0.3 |
| South 4 | HIRO Shibata tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 85% | 0% | 14% | +5.9 | +4.4 | -1.5 | -8.8 |