Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/12 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+80.9pt). The game was decided in East 3: Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shota Akutsu, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +33.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Miura 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Shota Akutsu 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Tomohiro Miura Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Shota Akutsu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -9.0 | -4.2 | +17.1 | -3.9 |
| East 2 | Tomohiro Miura tsumo 18,000 | 18% | 22% | 37% | 24% | -13.3 | +50.0 | -18.5 | -18.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Miura | 10% | 63% | 18% | 10% | +3.5 | -3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| East 3 | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shota Akutsu | 10% | 62% | 18% | 10% | -3.7 | -3.0 | +33.1 | -26.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 3,000 | 7% | 51% | 40% | 3% | -1.0 | -6.1 | +7.7 | -0.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Tomohiro Honda | 6% | 43% | 48% | 3% | -11.7 | -2.5 | +15.2 | -1.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Shota Akutsu | 2% | 33% | 63% | 2% | +2.6 | -6.3 | +21.0 | -17.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 17% | 82% | 0% | +0.9 | -3.3 | +4.0 | -1.6 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 1,300 from Tomohiro Miura | 1% | 13% | 86% | 0% | -1.0 | -3.3 | -0.8 | +5.2 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Miura ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 1% | 11% | 88% | 1% | +1.6 | +3.0 | -1.3 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Shota Akutsu ron 2,600 from Tomohiro Miura | 1% | 11% | 88% | 0% | -2.2 | -3.7 | +2.2 | +3.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 7% | 93% | 0% | +3.1 | -3.8 | +1.1 | -0.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,500 from Tomohiro Miura | 0% | 2% | 98% | 0% | -0.1 | -2.6 | +3.0 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +0.8 | -0.5 | -1.7 | +1.3 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Shota Akutsu | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +6.9 | +0.8 | +0.1 | -7.8 |