Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/16 Game 1
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+55.0pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +47.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Okada ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -13.9 | +11.6 | +0.3 | +2.0 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 15% | 34% | 25% | 26% | +15.2 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -13.3 |
| East 3 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 34% | 23% | 18% | -15.3 | -12.8 | +37.1 | -9.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 15% | 20% | 53% | 13% | +27.2 | -24.1 | -0.7 | -2.3 |
| East 4 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 30% | 8% | 52% | 10% | -10.7 | -8.3 | -14.3 | +33.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 7% | 38% | 29% | -10.7 | +25.8 | -0.9 | -14.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 19% | 41% | 20% | -2.5 | +6.0 | -1.0 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 12,000 from Yu Suzuki | 17% | 23% | 39% | 20% | -2.5 | +47.9 | -41.8 | -3.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 72% | 8% | 11% | +29.4 | -13.2 | -8.0 | -8.2 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Okada ron 8,000 from Yu Suzuki | 30% | 54% | 7% | 9% | -7.0 | +25.3 | -20.4 | +2.1 |
| South 4 | Yu Suzuki ron 8,000 from Sayaka Okada | 5% | 90% | 0% | 4% | -0.6 | -3.4 | +8.3 | -4.2 |