Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/16 Game 1
Okada Sayaka finished 1st (+55.0pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Suzuki Yu, which moved Okada Sayaka's expected points by +48.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Okada Sayaka 1st-place chance | Suzuki Yu 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Okada Sayaka Expected pt change | Suzuki Yu Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Okada Sayaka ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 25% | 26% | 24% | 24% | -11.6 | +11.2 | +1.8 | -1.5 |
| East 2 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 18% | 32% | 25% | 24% | +12.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | -12.3 |
| East 3 | Suzuki Yu tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 32% | 27% | 17% | -13.1 | -12.1 | +34.6 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 14% | 20% | 55% | 11% | +25.6 | -23.2 | -0.6 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 8% | 54% | 9% | -12.2 | -9.6 | -13.8 | +35.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 22% | 7% | 40% | 31% | -6.4 | +25.6 | -3.5 | -15.6 |
| South 1 | Draw | 21% | 19% | 39% | 20% | -5.3 | +7.4 | +0.6 | -2.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Okada Sayaka ron 12,000 from Suzuki Yu | 16% | 23% | 40% | 20% | -1.0 | +48.1 | -41.2 | -5.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000 | 8% | 74% | 8% | 10% | +29.8 | -14.0 | -9.7 | -6.1 |
| South 3 | Okada Sayaka ron 8,000 from Suzuki Yu | 32% | 55% | 6% | 8% | -7.7 | +24.8 | -19.6 | +2.5 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Yu ron 8,000 from Okada Sayaka | 6% | 89% | 0% | 5% | -1.2 | -3.0 | +8.2 | -4.0 |