Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/16 Game 2
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+96.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +35.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 24% | 27% | 23% | -18.6 | -8.9 | +35.4 | -7.8 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 16% | 55% | 18% | +11.1 | -6.5 | -1.1 | -3.4 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 4,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 17% | 13% | 56% | 15% | -14.7 | +1.0 | +13.1 | +0.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 7,800 | 9% | 9% | 68% | 14% | -5.2 | -5.3 | +15.6 | -5.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 5% | 83% | 8% | -8.1 | -7.7 | +25.6 | -9.8 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 1% | 98% | 1% | -5.2 | +2.7 | +0.5 | +1.9 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 5,800 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | +3.3 | +1.5 | +7.9 | -12.7 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +9.9 | -8.9 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +12.2 | -3.2 | -0.3 | -8.7 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +6.5 | -3.2 | -0.9 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +10.7 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 98% | 0% | -14.5 | +26.7 | -2.2 | -10.0 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | +15.9 | -12.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +10.9 | -10.3 | -0.9 | +0.4 |
| South 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -8.0 | +3.4 | +8.6 | -4.1 |