Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/16 Game 2
Shibukawa Namba finished 1st (+96.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000, which moved Shibukawa Namba's expected points by +39.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 27% | 24% | 23% | 26% | -18.6 | -7.5 | +39.2 | -13.1 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 18% | 55% | 14% | +9.5 | -7.2 | -1.0 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Shibukawa Namba ron 4,800 from Setokuma Naoki | 17% | 12% | 56% | 16% | -15.7 | +1.1 | +12.7 | +1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 7,800 | 8% | 10% | 68% | 14% | -4.1 | -5.8 | +14.5 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 5% | 83% | 8% | -7.8 | -7.8 | +26.2 | -10.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 1% | 1% | 97% | 1% | -5.0 | +2.2 | +1.4 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 5,800 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 1% | 98% | 1% | +1.6 | +2.1 | +8.0 | -11.8 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | +11.5 | -9.3 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 5,200 | 0% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +13.2 | -3.3 | -1.1 | -8.8 |
| South 1 | Draw | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +4.1 | -3.1 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | +10.8 | -3.7 | -3.6 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 0% | 98% | 0% | -14.1 | +25.9 | -2.5 | -9.2 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | +15.8 | -10.9 | -1.2 | -3.7 |
| South 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +11.1 | -10.7 | -0.8 | +0.4 |
| South 4 | Shibukawa Namba ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -7.9 | +3.4 | +8.5 | -4.0 |