Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/18 Game 1
Shota Akutsu finished 1st (+63.9pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Shota Akutsu ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata, which moved Shota Akutsu's expected points by +36.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Shota Akutsu 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Shota Akutsu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Genta Takeuchi tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -13.6 | +23.1 | -6.1 | -3.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 43% | 20% | 22% | -0.2 | -2.9 | +5.2 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu ron 12,000 from Aiko Hinata | 15% | 41% | 23% | 21% | -31.6 | -0.9 | -3.5 | +36.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 35% | 15% | 47% | -0.2 | -4.4 | +0.6 | +3.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Shota Akutsu tsumo 6,000 | 4% | 30% | 15% | 51% | -4.4 | -8.5 | -4.8 | +17.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Aiko Hinata tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 18% | 10% | 69% | +3.7 | -3.2 | -0.8 | +0.4 |
| South 1 | Shota Akutsu tsumo 2,000 | 2% | 15% | 9% | 74% | -4.6 | -0.7 | -1.1 | +6.4 |
| South 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 10% | 7% | 83% | +14.4 | -10.3 | -6.6 | +2.5 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata ron 3,200 from Kazuma Ishii | 0% | 3% | 5% | 92% | +8.8 | +3.1 | -15.1 | +3.3 |
| South 4 | Aiko Hinata ron 5,200 from Kazuma Ishii | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | +9.5 | +7.2 | -15.9 | -0.9 |