Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Regular Season

12/18 Game 2

Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+99.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sayaka Kayamori ron 18,000 from Megumu Aikawa, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +42.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 3End● Sayaka Kayamori● Shingo Hori● Megumu Aikawa● Takaharu Ooi0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Sayaka● Shingo● Megumu● Takaharu
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultShingo Hori
1st-place chance
Megumu Aikawa
1st-place chance
Sayaka Kayamori
1st-place chance
Takaharu Ooi
1st-place chance
Shingo Hori
Expected pt change
Megumu Aikawa
Expected pt change
Sayaka Kayamori
Expected pt change
Takaharu Ooi
Expected pt change
East 1Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,00027%24%25%24%-13.5-6.2+20.8-1.1
East 2Shingo Hori tsumo 12,00017%20%40%24%+34.0-16.4-6.8-10.8
East 3Sayaka Kayamori ron 18,000 from Megumu Aikawa42%9%32%16%-6.6-34.7+42.0-0.8
East 3, 1 honbaExhaustive draw21%1%69%9%-4.0-0.8+5.3-0.5
East 3, 2 honbaShingo Hori ron 3,900 from Megumu Aikawa17%1%75%8%+13.0-7.5-4.7-0.8
East 4Takaharu Ooi ron 7,700 from Megumu Aikawa25%1%67%7%-1.9-10.4-0.3+12.6
East 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw24%0%65%11%+4.4+2.3-0.6-6.1
South 1, 2 honbaSayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,00027%0%66%6%-14.4-2.0+19.9-3.5
South 2Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Megumu Aikawa5%0%92%2%+0.2-3.4+5.1-1.9
South 3Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,0002%0%97%1%-2.5-1.1+4.4-0.8
South 3, 1 honbaSayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,0001%0%98%1%-6.2-6.1+18.7-6.4
South 3, 2 honbaTakaharu Ooi tsumo 1,1000%0%100%0%+0.5+0.2-1.4+0.7
South 4Exhaustive draw0%0%100%0%-2.1-0.9-0.8+3.8
South 4, 1 honbaMegumu Aikawa tsumo 8,0000%0%100%0%+1.3+9.5-1.6-9.2

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)