Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/18 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+99.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Kayamori Sayaka ron 18,000 from Aikawa Megumu, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +44.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -10.3 | -5.7 | +20.8 | -4.8 |
| East 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 20% | 41% | 21% | +34.3 | -17.8 | -8.3 | -8.2 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 18,000 from Aikawa Megumu | 42% | 10% | 32% | 16% | -9.4 | -34.0 | +44.3 | -0.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 19% | 1% | 72% | 8% | -0.3 | -0.8 | +1.7 | -0.7 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Aikawa Megumu | 19% | 1% | 72% | 8% | +10.6 | -7.4 | -2.2 | -1.0 |
| East 4 | Ooi Takaharu ron 7,700 from Aikawa Megumu | 24% | 1% | 70% | 6% | -0.6 | -9.5 | -3.1 | +13.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 26% | 0% | 63% | 11% | +3.9 | +1.7 | +0.8 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 28% | 0% | 66% | 7% | -14.8 | -2.2 | +20.0 | -3.0 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Aikawa Megumu | 5% | 0% | 91% | 3% | +0.4 | -3.5 | +5.8 | -2.7 |
| South 3 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 3,000 | 1% | 0% | 97% | 2% | -2.4 | -1.3 | +4.4 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 98% | 1% | -6.5 | -5.7 | +18.9 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +0.4 | 0.0 | -1.8 | +1.5 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -2.1 | -0.9 | -0.8 | +3.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +2.0 | +9.6 | -1.7 | -10.0 |