Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/18 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+99.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Sayaka Kayamori ron 18,000 from Megumu Aikawa, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +42.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -13.5 | -6.2 | +20.8 | -1.1 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 20% | 40% | 24% | +34.0 | -16.4 | -6.8 | -10.8 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 18,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 42% | 9% | 32% | 16% | -6.6 | -34.7 | +42.0 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 1% | 69% | 9% | -4.0 | -0.8 | +5.3 | -0.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Megumu Aikawa | 17% | 1% | 75% | 8% | +13.0 | -7.5 | -4.7 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Takaharu Ooi ron 7,700 from Megumu Aikawa | 25% | 1% | 67% | 7% | -1.9 | -10.4 | -0.3 | +12.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 0% | 65% | 11% | +4.4 | +2.3 | -0.6 | -6.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 0% | 66% | 6% | -14.4 | -2.0 | +19.9 | -3.5 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Megumu Aikawa | 5% | 0% | 92% | 2% | +0.2 | -3.4 | +5.1 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 3,000 | 2% | 0% | 97% | 1% | -2.5 | -1.1 | +4.4 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 0% | 98% | 1% | -6.2 | -6.1 | +18.7 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 1,100 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +0.5 | +0.2 | -1.4 | +0.7 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | -2.1 | -0.9 | -0.8 | +3.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | +1.3 | +9.5 | -1.6 | -9.2 |