Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/18 Table B Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+64.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +31.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 3,900 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +10.8 | -5.3 | -2.9 | -2.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 7,800 | 33% | 20% | 22% | 25% | +19.5 | -4.0 | -6.3 | -9.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 48% | 17% | 17% | 17% | -1.3 | +8.6 | -8.1 | +0.8 |
| East 2 | Rio Tojyo ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 48% | 22% | 13% | 18% | +8.8 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -3.3 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 17% | 12% | 15% | -3.5 | -4.3 | +7.0 | +0.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 53% | 16% | 15% | 16% | -1.5 | -0.7 | +31.1 | -28.9 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 1,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 49% | 14% | 32% | 5% | +3.0 | -3.6 | -1.9 | +2.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 12% | 30% | 6% | +0.7 | -5.9 | +1.7 | +3.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 52% | 10% | 31% | 7% | -8.7 | -1.6 | +28.3 | -18.0 |
| South 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 4,800 | 34% | 6% | 58% | 1% | +11.0 | -3.1 | -5.7 | -2.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 46% | 5% | 48% | 1% | -13.5 | +25.7 | -5.3 | -6.8 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 35% | 17% | 47% | 1% | -5.9 | -9.4 | +23.7 | -8.4 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,500 from Rio Tojyo | 17% | 4% | 78% | 0% | -6.3 | +1.0 | +6.3 | -0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,000 | 10% | 3% | 87% | 0% | +5.9 | -4.7 | -0.2 | -0.9 |
| South 4 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,800 from Rio Tojyo | 8% | 1% | 91% | 0% | -13.5 | +4.0 | +2.3 | +7.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 1% | 97% | 0% | -5.9 | -4.9 | -4.2 | +15.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 7,700 from Rio Tojyo | 2% | 1% | 96% | 1% | -21.8 | +8.0 | +0.1 | +13.7 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 1% | 97% | 2% | -6.4 | -0.5 | -8.0 | +14.9 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 3% | 90% | 7% | -18.3 | +7.8 | +10.3 | +0.2 |