Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/19 Table B Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+81.6pt). The game was decided in East 2: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 7,800 | 23% | 25% | 27% | 25% | +22.5 | -6.3 | -10.3 | -5.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 7,700 from Hisato Sasaki | 40% | 20% | 20% | 20% | +18.0 | -0.8 | -18.3 | +1.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kazuma Ishii ron 1,500 from Akina Mizuhara | 56% | 17% | 10% | 17% | +6.5 | -4.2 | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 61% | 13% | 9% | 17% | -5.1 | +12.7 | -3.9 | -3.7 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 12,000 | 58% | 19% | 8% | 15% | -12.3 | +29.5 | -8.3 | -8.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 4,000 | 40% | 43% | 6% | 11% | +15.8 | -10.7 | -1.4 | -3.7 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 58% | 29% | 5% | 8% | +1.2 | -2.8 | +3.5 | -2.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 8,000 | 61% | 27% | 5% | 7% | -3.3 | -4.8 | -12.8 | +20.9 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 59% | 24% | 2% | 15% | -8.4 | +28.6 | -15.6 | -4.5 |
| South 1 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 3,000 | 40% | 50% | 1% | 9% | +9.7 | -4.8 | -1.5 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,200 from Kazuma Ishii | 52% | 41% | 1% | 7% | -12.3 | +12.7 | -0.6 | +0.2 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 5,800 from Hisato Sasaki | 34% | 60% | 0% | 6% | -6.0 | +14.4 | -6.1 | -2.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 77% | 0% | 4% | -0.8 | -4.9 | +8.5 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 77% | 0% | 4% | -7.7 | +15.8 | -5.2 | -2.9 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 5,200 | 2% | 96% | 0% | 2% | -0.6 | +8.0 | -1.7 | -5.8 |