Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/22 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+50.6pt). The game was decided in East 3: Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +24.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 26% | 25% | 23% | -6.9 | +9.6 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 21% | 33% | 21% | 24% | -0.5 | -25.4 | -0.5 | +26.3 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 19% | 14% | 22% | 45% | +24.0 | -18.4 | -4.8 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 36% | 6% | 15% | 43% | +3.6 | +26.3 | -2.0 | -27.9 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 44% | 19% | 17% | 20% | -4.0 | -3.2 | -4.4 | +11.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 39% | 18% | 14% | 28% | +12.0 | -7.4 | -3.8 | -0.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 2,100 | 53% | 9% | 12% | 26% | -2.5 | -4.6 | +11.9 | -4.8 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 52% | 8% | 17% | 23% | +5.1 | -5.0 | +5.9 | -6.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Taro Suzuki ron 1,000 from Sayaka Okada | 57% | 6% | 20% | 18% | +8.1 | -4.8 | -20.2 | +16.9 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 73% | 2% | 4% | 21% | +10.0 | +39.9 | -19.5 | -30.4 |