Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/23 Game 2
Aikawa Megumu finished 1st (+74.9pt). The game was decided in South 3: Aikawa Megumu tsumo 12,000, which moved Aikawa Megumu's expected points by +46.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Aikawa Megumu 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Aikawa Megumu Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 5,200 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -10.9 | -3.8 | -3.0 | +17.7 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 22% | 22% | 40% | -8.4 | +31.1 | -10.5 | -12.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 44% | 16% | 28% | -4.9 | -14.8 | +23.8 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 6,400 | 11% | 31% | 31% | 27% | -3.9 | -7.2 | -9.0 | +20.1 |
| East 4 | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Tojyo Rio | 9% | 25% | 24% | 42% | +4.4 | +2.7 | +0.4 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 12% | 29% | 24% | 36% | -8.6 | +2.8 | +3.3 | +2.5 |
| South 2 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 30% | 26% | 37% | -4.1 | -4.7 | -5.8 | +14.5 |
| South 3 | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 12,000 | 4% | 21% | 19% | 56% | -9.0 | -16.4 | +46.1 | -20.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 7% | 70% | 22% | -3.5 | +5.1 | +0.5 | -2.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aikawa Megumu tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 7% | 75% | 18% | -6.3 | +7.4 | +29.9 | -31.0 |