Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/23 Game 2
Megumu Aikawa finished 1st (+74.9pt). The game was decided in South 3: Megumu Aikawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Megumu Aikawa's expected points by +43.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Megumu Aikawa 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Megumu Aikawa Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 5,200 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -9.2 | -5.2 | -2.6 | +17.0 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 21% | 23% | 38% | -9.9 | +29.8 | -7.8 | -12.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 42% | 18% | 27% | -3.8 | -13.6 | +22.0 | -4.6 |
| East 3 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 6,400 | 12% | 32% | 33% | 24% | -6.2 | -6.5 | -9.6 | +22.3 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 9% | 26% | 23% | 43% | +6.8 | +1.1 | +1.6 | -9.5 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 13% | 26% | 26% | 35% | -7.2 | +5.4 | -0.9 | +2.7 |
| South 2 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 2,000 | 7% | 31% | 24% | 38% | -8.0 | -7.2 | -1.8 | +17.0 |
| South 3 | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 19% | 20% | 57% | -6.6 | -15.0 | +43.6 | -22.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 8% | 69% | 22% | -4.3 | +4.5 | +1.8 | -2.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Megumu Aikawa tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 6% | 76% | 18% | -6.1 | +8.1 | +29.2 | -31.1 |