Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/25 Game 1
Kazuma Ishii finished 1st (+75.3pt). The game was decided in South 2: Kazuma Ishii tsumo 8,000, which moved Kazuma Ishii's expected points by +28.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Kazuma Ishii 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Kazuma Ishii Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 4,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -6.8 | -1.1 | +11.6 | -3.7 |
| East 2 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 25% | 34% | 22% | -3.7 | -10.0 | +15.9 | -2.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 16% | 49% | 20% | -4.2 | -0.2 | +2.1 | +2.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Aki Nikaido | 14% | 16% | 49% | 21% | -6.1 | +8.3 | -1.0 | -1.1 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 2,600 from Kazuma Ishii | 12% | 20% | 49% | 20% | -2.2 | +15.3 | -7.6 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 11% | 32% | 41% | 16% | -25.3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | +28.4 |
| South 2 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 27% | 37% | 35% | -3.3 | -17.1 | +28.9 | -8.5 |
| South 3 | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 7% | 75% | 19% | -4.1 | -7.3 | +20.7 | -9.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kazuma Ishii tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 1% | 94% | 5% | -2.3 | -4.2 | +8.8 | -2.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 0% | 97% | 2% | +13.3 | +9.3 | -0.5 | -22.1 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Kazuma Ishii | 0% | 0% | 99% | 1% | -6.2 | +11.0 | -2.9 | -1.9 |