Game · 2025-26 Regular Season
12/26 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+66.2pt). The game was decided in South 3: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 16,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +55.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -8.3 | -2.2 | +11.5 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 19% | 24% | 33% | 25% | -2.1 | -2.0 | +4.5 | -0.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 21% | 36% | 25% | -1.9 | +5.0 | -5.9 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 3,900 from Kana Nakada | 17% | 25% | 31% | 27% | +15.0 | -0.4 | +2.0 | -16.6 |
| South 1 | Kana Nakada ron 8,000 from Kosuke Nagai | 28% | 24% | 32% | 16% | -30.6 | -2.9 | +1.4 | +32.2 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 8% | 20% | 34% | 38% | -12.5 | +44.6 | -16.4 | -15.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 65% | 15% | 18% | +40.1 | -17.5 | -11.5 | -11.1 |
| South 3 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 16,000 | 22% | 47% | 14% | 17% | +55.9 | -20.4 | -26.7 | -8.9 |
| South 4 | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 5,200 | 90% | 4% | 0% | 6% | +9.7 | +2.3 | -5.7 | -6.3 |