Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/6 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+68.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +42.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tojyo Rio tsumo 16,000 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -20.5 | +43.3 | -12.5 | -10.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 9% | 63% | 13% | 15% | +6.9 | -1.6 | -2.8 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 7,700 from Katsumata Kenji | 12% | 63% | 12% | 13% | -18.3 | -3.0 | +21.1 | +0.2 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 58% | 22% | 14% | -11.0 | -19.7 | +42.2 | -11.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 28% | 61% | 7% | -6.6 | -5.7 | -7.4 | +19.7 |
| East 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Katsumata Kenji | 2% | 27% | 56% | 15% | -12.1 | -4.5 | -3.2 | +19.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 22% | 50% | 27% | -5.1 | -12.3 | -13.7 | +31.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 1% | 12% | 29% | 58% | -1.5 | +0.8 | +30.0 | -29.2 |
| South 1 | Tojyo Rio ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 11% | 67% | 22% | -1.9 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +0.9 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 10% | 69% | 21% | -1.2 | -12.6 | +18.9 | -5.1 |
| South 3 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 92% | 7% | +8.1 | -3.4 | -4.0 | -0.8 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 94% | 6% | +11.8 | -4.2 | +0.1 | -7.7 |