Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/6 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+68.8pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +45.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Rio Tojyo tsumo 16,000 | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -22.1 | +44.4 | -10.8 | -11.5 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 60% | 15% | 15% | +8.3 | -1.7 | -6.2 | -0.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 7,700 from Kenji Katsumata | 13% | 59% | 13% | 16% | -19.5 | -0.3 | +21.2 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 18,000 | 6% | 59% | 23% | 13% | -11.8 | -20.9 | +45.6 | -12.9 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 27% | 64% | 7% | -6.0 | -6.2 | -8.8 | +21.0 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Kenji Katsumata | 2% | 25% | 58% | 15% | -11.5 | -1.9 | -5.7 | +19.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 23% | 49% | 27% | -5.1 | -13.3 | -13.5 | +31.9 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 1% | 12% | 28% | 59% | -1.9 | +0.3 | +32.5 | -30.9 |
| South 1 | Rio Tojyo ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 10% | 69% | 21% | -1.6 | +1.6 | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 11% | 69% | 20% | -1.9 | -13.9 | +19.6 | -3.7 |
| South 3 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 92% | 7% | +8.1 | -3.2 | -5.4 | +0.5 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 92% | 8% | +12.3 | -4.2 | +1.3 | -9.4 |