Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/7 Game 1

Daigo Hiroshi finished 1st (+62.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Daigo Hiroshi ron 8,000 from Nagai Kosuke, which moved Daigo Hiroshi's expected points by +41.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Daigo Hiroshi● Honda Tomohiro● Asami Maki● Nagai Kosuke0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Daigo● Honda● Asami● Nagai
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultDaigo Hiroshi
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Asami Maki
1st-place chance
Nagai Kosuke
1st-place chance
Daigo Hiroshi
Expected pt change
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Asami Maki
Expected pt change
Nagai Kosuke
Expected pt change
East 1Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 6,00027%25%24%24%+14.8-6.9-5.4-2.5
East 1, 1 honbaNagai Kosuke ron 5,200 from Asami Maki36%21%21%22%-0.6+1.1-15.6+15.1
East 2Asami Maki ron 5,200 from Nagai Kosuke37%20%12%31%+1.7-3.6+18.1-16.1
East 3Asami Maki tsumo 12,00038%18%22%22%-13.3-8.9+32.8-10.5
East 3, 1 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 8,000 from Asami Maki24%13%49%14%+26.4+0.6-25.7-1.3
East 4Asami Maki tsumo 8,00050%13%24%13%-7.3-8.1+30.4-14.9
South 1Asami Maki ron 2,600 from Honda Tomohiro36%7%51%5%-2.7-6.7+8.6+0.8
South 2Asami Maki tsumo 1,50030%4%61%4%-1.2-5.2+7.8-1.3
South 3Asami Maki ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro22%0%74%4%-3.5-8.7+8.5+3.6
South 3, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro tsumo 8,00013%0%84%3%-2.7+19.7-3.6-13.5
South 4Draw10%0%89%2%+7.6+0.1-9.7+2.0
South 4, 1 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 8,000 from Nagai Kosuke25%1%71%3%+41.5+3.5-27.9-17.0

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)