Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/7 Game 2
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+60.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +41.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +31.2 | -8.8 | -10.9 | -11.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 49% | 18% | 18% | 15% | -1.7 | +1.4 | +13.9 | -13.6 |
| East 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 18% | 24% | 11% | -5.5 | -15.0 | +22.2 | -1.7 |
| East 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,600 from Taro Suzuki | 39% | 10% | 41% | 10% | -5.6 | +0.3 | -4.3 | +9.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 10% | 40% | 14% | -5.9 | +25.1 | -1.1 | -18.0 |
| South 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 2,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 31% | 23% | 39% | 7% | +13.3 | -0.8 | -4.1 | -8.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 43% | 22% | 32% | 4% | -40.8 | -0.1 | +41.5 | -0.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 12% | 83% | 3% | -2.5 | +2.2 | -2.8 | +3.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 14% | 78% | 3% | -2.9 | +3.7 | -2.4 | +1.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 17% | 76% | 3% | +17.7 | -10.2 | -0.2 | -7.3 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 12,000 from Taro Suzuki | 9% | 9% | 80% | 3% | -41.1 | +4.6 | +3.9 | +32.6 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 4% | 90% | 6% | -3.8 | +7.0 | +4.3 | -7.6 |