Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/7 Game 2
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+60.2pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Suzuki Taro, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +39.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 26% | 24% | 24% | +29.3 | -9.8 | -8.7 | -10.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 5,200 from Kurosawa Saki | 48% | 17% | 18% | 17% | -0.8 | -1.1 | +12.9 | -11.0 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 47% | 15% | 25% | 13% | -4.3 | -11.4 | +21.8 | -6.1 |
| East 3 | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,600 from Suzuki Taro | 41% | 9% | 41% | 8% | -5.9 | -2.2 | -2.8 | +10.9 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 37% | 9% | 41% | 13% | -6.3 | +26.6 | -2.4 | -17.9 |
| South 1 | Suzuki Taro ron 2,900 from Kurosawa Saki | 32% | 22% | 39% | 7% | +11.4 | -2.0 | -1.2 | -8.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 12,000 from Suzuki Taro | 41% | 20% | 35% | 4% | -39.5 | +0.4 | +39.1 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 3% | 11% | 83% | 2% | -2.8 | +2.6 | -2.3 | +2.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 4% | 14% | 80% | 3% | -2.3 | +5.2 | -3.7 | +0.8 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Suzuki Taro tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 18% | 75% | 3% | +17.9 | -12.8 | +1.4 | -6.5 |
| South 3 | Kurosawa Saki ron 12,000 from Suzuki Taro | 10% | 7% | 81% | 3% | -40.9 | +5.4 | +2.4 | +33.2 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 1,500 | 0% | 4% | 89% | 7% | -4.3 | +7.6 | +4.8 | -8.1 |