Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/9 Game 1
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+90.3pt). The game was decided in East 2: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 16,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +39.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 27% | 24% | 24% | 25% | -24.6 | -3.9 | +3.5 | +25.0 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 16,000 | 11% | 21% | 24% | 44% | -7.5 | -21.8 | -10.1 | +39.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 4% | 10% | 82% | -0.2 | -1.9 | +3.9 | -1.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Geki Shimoishi ron 5,200 from Arisa Date | 4% | 5% | 12% | 80% | +13.9 | -12.4 | -2.9 | +1.4 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 3% | 7% | 84% | -1.3 | -1.2 | +1.8 | +0.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Geki Shimoishi | 5% | 2% | 7% | 87% | -18.4 | +14.9 | +1.4 | +2.1 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 3% | 5% | 92% | +5.9 | -20.1 | +3.0 | +11.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | +4.5 | -3.5 | -1.6 | +0.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.1 | -5.6 | -3.0 | +12.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 12,000 from Arisa Date | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.0 | -14.9 | +16.9 | -1.0 |