Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/9 Game 2
Kana Nakada finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000, which moved Kana Nakada's expected points by +33.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaki Asai ron 5,200 from Taro Suzuki | 25% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -2.2 | -14.3 | -2.4 | +18.9 |
| East 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 16% | 22% | 40% | -7.4 | -17.9 | +33.2 | -7.9 |
| East 3 | Takaki Asai ron 1,300 from Kana Nakada | 16% | 7% | 48% | 29% | +1.9 | +0.8 | -4.6 | +1.9 |
| East 4 | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 17% | 8% | 44% | 32% | -2.1 | -6.0 | +12.4 | -4.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 5% | 57% | 24% | +6.6 | -3.0 | -1.1 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 4% | 56% | 23% | -5.9 | +4.1 | +2.6 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kana Nakada tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 6% | 60% | 23% | -2.7 | -12.6 | +20.5 | -5.2 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 5,200 from Kana Nakada | 2% | 0% | 89% | 10% | -3.2 | +6.5 | -6.7 | +3.4 |
| South 4 | Kana Nakada ron 2,000 from Taro Suzuki | 1% | 0% | 88% | 11% | -3.2 | -5.5 | +7.8 | +1.0 |