Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/9 Game 2

Nakada Kana finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in East 2: Nakada Kana tsumo 12,000, which moved Nakada Kana's expected points by +32.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Nakada Kana● Takamiya Mari● Suzuki Taro● Asai Takaki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Nakada● Takamiya● Suzuki● Asai
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Suzuki Taro
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
1st-place chance
Asai Takaki
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Suzuki Taro
Expected pt change
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Asai Takaki
Expected pt change
East 1Asai Takaki ron 5,200 from Suzuki Taro26%24%24%27%-2.2-12.0-1.6+15.8
East 2Nakada Kana tsumo 12,00022%17%23%39%-7.2-16.9+32.1-8.0
East 3Asai Takaki ron 1,300 from Nakada Kana15%7%49%29%0.0+0.4-2.6+2.1
East 4Nakada Kana ron 2,000 from Suzuki Taro14%8%47%30%+0.3-8.3+12.0-4.0
South 1Draw13%4%59%23%+7.3-1.3-3.0-3.0
South 1, 1 honbaDraw18%4%55%22%-5.9+2.4+2.2+1.3
South 2, 2 honbaNakada Kana tsumo 4,00013%5%59%23%-4.1-11.4+21.1-5.6
South 3Suzuki Taro ron 5,200 from Nakada Kana3%0%88%9%-2.9+6.4-7.0+3.5
South 4Nakada Kana ron 2,000 from Suzuki Taro2%0%86%12%-3.7-5.8+8.8+0.7

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)