Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/10 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+58.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +49.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Aki Nikaido | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -7.9 | +7.6 | -1.2 | +1.5 |
| East 2 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,800 from Maki Asami | 18% | 30% | 26% | 26% | +0.1 | +17.2 | -18.2 | +0.8 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 44% | 14% | 25% | -1.7 | +4.2 | -1.1 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaki Asai ron 1,300 from Maki Asami | 16% | 47% | 14% | 23% | -0.8 | +0.6 | -5.2 | +5.3 |
| East 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 16% | 47% | 11% | 27% | +26.5 | -26.5 | -1.9 | +1.9 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 36% | 25% | 12% | 28% | +4.9 | -2.9 | -6.5 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,700 | 39% | 22% | 8% | 31% | +10.0 | -2.1 | -0.5 | -7.4 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 16,000 | 51% | 18% | 7% | 23% | -27.8 | +49.5 | -10.4 | -11.3 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 70% | 3% | 12% | +39.5 | -24.8 | -6.1 | -8.6 |
| South 3 | Maki Asami tsumo 7,800 | 62% | 29% | 2% | 7% | -8.1 | -2.4 | +17.2 | -6.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 1,500 from Hisato Sasaki | 55% | 32% | 6% | 7% | +4.2 | -6.7 | +3.1 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 63% | 24% | 5% | 8% | -12.9 | +27.2 | -10.7 | -3.6 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Maki Asami | 32% | 64% | 0% | 4% | -11.5 | +17.8 | -7.4 | +1.2 |