Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/10 Game 1

Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+58.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Sasaki Hisato tsumo 16,000, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +49.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Sasaki Hisato● Nikaido Aki● Asami Maki● Asai Takaki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Sasaki● Nikaido● Asami● Asai
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNikaido Aki
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Asami Maki
1st-place chance
Asai Takaki
1st-place chance
Nikaido Aki
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Asami Maki
Expected pt change
Asai Takaki
Expected pt change
East 1Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Nikaido Aki25%25%25%25%-8.6+7.4-0.2+1.4
East 2Sasaki Hisato ron 5,800 from Asami Maki18%30%26%26%+0.2+16.9-17.5+0.5
East 2, 1 honbaDraw17%43%14%26%-1.8+5.5-1.4-2.3
East 2, 2 honbaAsai Takaki ron 1,300 from Asami Maki16%47%13%23%-0.4-1.1-5.2+6.6
East 3Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato16%47%11%26%+27.4-25.0-4.3+1.8
East 4Draw37%24%9%30%+4.4-4.1-2.8+2.5
East 4, 1 honbaNikaido Aki tsumo 2,70041%21%8%30%+9.7-0.3-3.7-5.6
South 1Sasaki Hisato tsumo 16,00051%20%6%24%-29.0+49.2-8.2-12.1
South 2Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,00014%72%3%11%+40.9-26.0-6.5-8.4
South 3Asami Maki tsumo 7,80064%28%2%7%-6.6-1.6+16.8-8.7
South 3, 1 honbaAsami Maki ron 1,500 from Sasaki Hisato58%31%5%6%+2.0-6.4+3.4+1.1
South 3, 2 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 5,20062%24%6%8%-13.6+26.6-10.7-2.3
South 4Sasaki Hisato ron 1,300 from Asami Maki31%64%0%5%-10.6+18.0-7.6+0.2

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)