Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/10 Game 2

Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+56.1pt). The game was decided in South 4: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +60.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Katsumata Kenji● Takizawa Kazunori● Daigo Hiroshi● Sonoda Ken0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Katsumata● Takizawa● Daigo● Sonoda
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTakizawa Kazunori
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Daigo Hiroshi
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Takizawa Kazunori
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Daigo Hiroshi
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
East 1Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji25%25%24%25%-2.1-20.9-0.2+23.2
East 2Draw21%12%23%44%-2.4+6.2+0.2-4.0
East 2, 1 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 2,00020%16%24%40%-0.7-7.1-4.5+12.4
East 3Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 8,00018%10%20%52%+24.3-5.9-13.6-4.9
East 4Draw37%8%11%44%+6.7+3.0-4.2-5.5
South 1, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken44%8%9%39%+2.2+4.4-2.0-4.6
South 2Daigo Hiroshi ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji48%10%9%34%+4.5-16.8+9.9+2.4
South 3Daigo Hiroshi ron 12,000 from Takizawa Kazunori56%2%10%32%-45.8+0.1+46.1-0.4
South 3, 1 honbaKatsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken12%3%51%35%-8.3+33.0+9.2-33.9
South 4Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,0005%9%73%13%-1.1+60.8-30.1-29.6

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)