Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/13 Game 2

Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Hagiwara Masato ron 16,000 from Nakada Kana, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +54.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Hagiwara Masato● Kayamori Sayaka● Uchikawa Kotaro● Nakada Kana0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Hagiwara● Kayamori● Uchikawa● Nakada
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Kayamori Sayaka
1st-place chance
Uchikawa Kotaro
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
Kayamori Sayaka
Expected pt change
Uchikawa Kotaro
Expected pt change
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
East 1Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Nakada Kana26%25%26%23%-2.5+10.2-0.8-6.8
East 2Nakada Kana ron 1,300 from Kayamori Sayaka23%32%24%20%+3.7-8.3+2.5+2.1
East 3Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,00026%25%28%22%-7.8+27.8-15.2-4.9
East 4Draw18%51%15%16%+3.3+3.0+3.8-10.1
South 1, 1 honbaHagiwara Masato ron 2,900 from Uchikawa Kotaro20%54%16%11%+12.7-2.2-9.8-0.6
South 1, 2 honbaDraw27%50%11%11%-3.5+1.3-3.9+6.2
South 2, 3 honbaHagiwara Masato ron 16,000 from Nakada Kana24%53%10%13%+54.8-17.3+1.2-38.7
South 3Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro86%10%3%1%+6.5+0.5-6.1-0.9
South 4Hagiwara Masato tsumo 4,00095%4%0%0%+6.7-1.9+1.6-6.4

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)