Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/13 Game 2
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 16,000 from Kana Nakada, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +53.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Kana Nakada | 24% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -1.4 | +11.1 | +0.7 | -10.4 |
| East 2 | Kana Nakada ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori | 23% | 31% | 26% | 20% | +1.2 | -5.8 | -0.1 | +4.7 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 27% | 26% | 24% | -4.7 | +26.1 | -14.4 | -7.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 50% | 14% | 18% | +1.4 | +4.2 | +6.0 | -11.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 19% | 56% | 16% | 9% | +13.6 | -2.6 | -12.5 | +1.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 51% | 10% | 11% | -3.7 | +0.7 | -2.1 | +5.1 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 16,000 from Kana Nakada | 23% | 53% | 11% | 13% | +53.7 | -15.8 | -0.5 | -37.4 |
| South 3 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 83% | 13% | 3% | 1% | +7.5 | -1.3 | -4.8 | -1.4 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,000 | 94% | 5% | 0% | 1% | +7.2 | -1.8 | +1.5 | -6.9 |