Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series

4/13 Game 2

Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in South 2, 3 honba: Masato Hagiwara ron 16,000 from Kana Nakada, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +53.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Masato Hagiwara● Sayaka Kayamori● Kotaro Uchikawa● Kana Nakada0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Masato● Sayaka● Kotaro● Kana
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultMasato Hagiwara
1st-place chance
Sayaka Kayamori
1st-place chance
Kotaro Uchikawa
1st-place chance
Kana Nakada
1st-place chance
Masato Hagiwara
Expected pt change
Sayaka Kayamori
Expected pt change
Kotaro Uchikawa
Expected pt change
Kana Nakada
Expected pt change
East 1Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Kana Nakada24%24%25%27%-1.4+11.1+0.7-10.4
East 2Kana Nakada ron 1,300 from Sayaka Kayamori23%31%26%20%+1.2-5.8-0.1+4.7
East 3Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,00023%27%26%24%-4.7+26.1-14.4-7.0
East 4Exhaustive draw18%50%14%18%+1.4+4.2+6.0-11.6
South 1, 1 honbaMasato Hagiwara ron 2,900 from Kotaro Uchikawa19%56%16%9%+13.6-2.6-12.5+1.5
South 1, 2 honbaExhaustive draw27%51%10%11%-3.7+0.7-2.1+5.1
South 2, 3 honbaMasato Hagiwara ron 16,000 from Kana Nakada23%53%11%13%+53.7-15.8-0.5-37.4
South 3Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa83%13%3%1%+7.5-1.3-4.8-1.4
South 4Masato Hagiwara tsumo 4,00094%5%0%1%+7.2-1.8+1.5-6.9

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)