Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/14 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+86.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Saki Kurosawa tsumo 24,000, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +47.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,500 from Hisato Sasaki | 26% | 24% | 24% | 27% | +2.0 | +3.0 | -0.3 | -4.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Geki Shimoishi ron 1,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 25% | 27% | 24% | 24% | -4.3 | -2.8 | +7.1 | 0.0 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 25% | 30% | 23% | -9.6 | +32.0 | -13.0 | -9.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 24,000 | 15% | 50% | 19% | 16% | -15.8 | +47.0 | -15.2 | -16.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Geki Shimoishi ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 2% | 91% | 4% | 3% | +1.6 | -1.7 | +16.4 | -16.3 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 2% | 91% | 6% | 2% | -16.9 | +1.4 | -0.5 | +16.0 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 93% | 4% | 2% | -1.6 | -1.0 | -2.9 | +5.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 93% | 4% | 3% | -5.5 | -3.3 | -4.7 | +13.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 12,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 1% | 90% | 3% | 5% | +2.2 | -2.3 | -25.5 | +25.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 85% | 1% | 13% | -8.9 | -21.3 | -8.2 | +38.4 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 0% | 48% | 1% | 51% | +0.5 | +6.2 | -3.3 | -3.3 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 54% | 1% | 45% | +19.8 | -5.0 | -11.1 | -3.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 53% | 0% | 46% | -4.0 | +11.0 | -1.0 | -6.1 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 32% | -3.8 | +21.0 | -4.3 | -13.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 90% | 0% | 10% | +6.7 | -1.7 | -2.9 | -2.1 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | +3.2 | -0.8 | -3.2 | +0.8 |
| South 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 7,700 from Geki Shimoishi | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | +0.4 | -1.6 | -7.9 | +9.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,500 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 89% | 0% | 11% | -0.2 | -3.3 | +0.3 | +3.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 85% | 0% | 15% | -1.2 | +1.3 | -1.7 | +1.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 85% | 0% | 15% | -1.2 | -2.7 | -0.4 | +4.3 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa ron 1,300 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 80% | 0% | 20% | 0.0 | +11.7 | +0.2 | -11.8 |