Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/14 Game 1
Kurosawa Saki finished 1st (+86.2pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kurosawa Saki tsumo 24,000, which moved Kurosawa Saki's expected points by +44.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,500 from Sasaki Hisato | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +4.9 | -2.2 | 0.0 | -2.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Shimoishi Geki ron 1,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 28% | 23% | 26% | 23% | -5.4 | +1.9 | +2.5 | +1.0 |
| East 2 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -12.7 | +32.6 | -9.3 | -10.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 24,000 | 14% | 52% | 18% | 16% | -12.8 | +44.4 | -16.1 | -15.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Shimoishi Geki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 3% | 90% | 4% | 3% | -0.1 | -0.3 | +18.4 | -18.0 |
| East 3 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 2% | 90% | 7% | 1% | -16.9 | +0.7 | -0.2 | +16.3 |
| East 4 | Draw | 1% | 92% | 5% | 2% | -2.1 | 0.0 | -3.2 | +5.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 93% | 3% | 3% | -5.0 | -3.3 | -5.4 | +13.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 12,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 1% | 90% | 3% | 5% | +2.6 | -2.7 | -25.6 | +25.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 1% | 85% | 1% | 13% | -9.4 | -20.0 | -8.2 | +37.6 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 0% | 49% | 0% | 51% | +1.7 | +4.5 | -4.4 | -1.8 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 54% | 0% | 46% | +19.0 | -3.0 | -10.4 | -5.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 56% | 0% | 43% | -3.8 | +8.6 | -1.0 | -3.8 |
| South 2 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 67% | 0% | 33% | -4.7 | +22.8 | -3.7 | -14.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 92% | 0% | 8% | +7.2 | -2.9 | -3.3 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,300 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | +3.5 | -0.5 | -3.0 | 0.0 |
| South 4 | Sasaki Hisato ron 7,700 from Shimoishi Geki | 0% | 94% | 0% | 7% | +0.2 | -1.9 | -7.7 | +9.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,500 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 89% | 0% | 11% | -0.3 | -3.2 | 0.0 | +3.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 85% | 0% | 15% | -1.3 | +1.4 | -1.5 | +1.4 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 85% | 0% | 15% | -1.0 | -3.1 | -0.8 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Kurosawa Saki ron 1,300 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 79% | 0% | 21% | -0.1 | +12.1 | +0.4 | -12.4 |