Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/14 Game 2

Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Honda Tomohiro ron 9,600 from Date Arisa, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +44.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Honda Tomohiro● Tojyo Rio● Sonoda Ken● Date Arisa0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Honda● Tojyo● Sonoda● Date
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultTojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Date Arisa
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Date Arisa
Expected pt change
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
East 1Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,00026%23%26%25%-11.6-4.0-6.2+21.7
East 2Sonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Date Arisa17%22%20%41%-1.4+30.1-27.5-1.2
East 2, 1 honbaDate Arisa tsumo 4,00014%41%8%37%-2.1-5.3+8.8-1.4
East 3Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Honda Tomohiro14%37%12%37%-0.9+24.5-2.4-21.2
East 4Honda Tomohiro ron 5,800 from Tojyo Rio10%65%8%17%-14.6-2.4-1.9+18.9
East 4, 1 honbaTojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken6%59%5%30%+18.5-18.3+0.1-0.3
South 1Date Arisa ron 2,600 from Honda Tomohiro16%42%8%35%-3.2+2.9+4.3-3.9
South 2Tojyo Rio ron 1,300 from Sonoda Ken12%47%10%32%+5.0-3.3-1.8+0.1
South 3Tojyo Rio ron 2,000 from Date Arisa15%44%10%31%+9.7+10.7-14.5-5.8
South 4Honda Tomohiro ron 9,600 from Date Arisa16%63%1%21%-10.0-21.1-13.2+44.3
South 4, 1 honbaTojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Date Arisa5%13%0%82%+23.9-22.1-8.1+6.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)