Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/16 Game 2

Shimoishi Geki finished 1st (+65.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Shimoishi Geki tsumo 18,000, which moved Shimoishi Geki's expected points by +44.1.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Shimoishi Geki● Honda Tomohiro● Takamiya Mari● Asai Takaki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Shimoishi● Honda● Takamiya● Asai
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHonda Tomohiro
1st-place chance
Shimoishi Geki
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Asai Takaki
1st-place chance
Honda Tomohiro
Expected pt change
Shimoishi Geki
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Asai Takaki
Expected pt change
East 1Shimoishi Geki tsumo 2,00027%25%24%25%-5.3+6.8+0.7-2.3
East 2Shimoishi Geki tsumo 18,00023%30%25%22%-15.4+44.1-15.6-13.1
East 2, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 2,000 from Asai Takaki10%68%11%11%+7.4-0.3-2.9-4.1
East 3Honda Tomohiro tsumo 1,50011%69%10%10%+3.3+2.2-4.0-1.6
East 4Shimoishi Geki tsumo 12,00012%73%6%9%-3.1+20.6-2.7-14.9
South 1Takamiya Mari tsumo 1,1004%92%3%1%-4.1+0.1+7.2-3.2
South 2Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Shimoishi Geki1%96%3%1%+19.6-10.8-6.3-2.5
South 3Draw5%90%3%2%+5.8+0.9-4.2-2.5
South 4, 1 honbaHonda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Shimoishi Geki5%93%0%1%+2.3+1.6+3.8-7.8

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)