Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/16 Game 2
Shimoishi Geki finished 1st (+65.0pt). The game was decided in East 2: Shimoishi Geki tsumo 18,000, which moved Shimoishi Geki's expected points by +44.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 2,000 | 27% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -5.3 | +6.8 | +0.7 | -2.3 |
| East 2 | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 30% | 25% | 22% | -15.4 | +44.1 | -15.6 | -13.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 2,000 from Asai Takaki | 10% | 68% | 11% | 11% | +7.4 | -0.3 | -2.9 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 1,500 | 11% | 69% | 10% | 10% | +3.3 | +2.2 | -4.0 | -1.6 |
| East 4 | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 73% | 6% | 9% | -3.1 | +20.6 | -2.7 | -14.9 |
| South 1 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 1,100 | 4% | 92% | 3% | 1% | -4.1 | +0.1 | +7.2 | -3.2 |
| South 2 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 1% | 96% | 3% | 1% | +19.6 | -10.8 | -6.3 | -2.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 5% | 90% | 3% | 2% | +5.8 | +0.9 | -4.2 | -2.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 5% | 93% | 0% | 1% | +2.3 | +1.6 | +3.8 | -7.8 |