Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/17 Game 1
Kosuke Nagai finished 1st (+60.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 4 honba: Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000, which moved Kosuke Nagai's expected points by +42.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kosuke Nagai 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kosuke Nagai Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -16.7 | -9.5 | -8.1 | +34.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 18% | 17% | 53% | -0.2 | -3.9 | -3.7 | +7.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 13% | 15% | 61% | -8.1 | -8.6 | +23.3 | -6.6 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Kosuke Nagai ron 12,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 9% | 10% | 27% | 54% | -24.4 | +0.1 | +30.3 | -6.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 7% | 53% | 38% | -1.0 | -1.1 | +4.2 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 7% | 56% | 35% | -2.5 | -2.5 | -1.8 | +6.9 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Taro Suzuki | 1% | 5% | 54% | 41% | -0.9 | +13.7 | +5.5 | -18.2 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 1% | 10% | 67% | 23% | +4.6 | -4.0 | -1.3 | +0.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 9% | 65% | 24% | +27.2 | -13.6 | -6.9 | -6.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Kosuke Nagai | 8% | 8% | 60% | 24% | -8.0 | +10.7 | -7.0 | +4.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 12% | 54% | 30% | -2.5 | +9.8 | -3.1 | -4.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 5% | 17% | 50% | 28% | -3.2 | +14.1 | -6.3 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 27% | 44% | 25% | -2.8 | +10.8 | -3.8 | -4.3 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 36% | 39% | 22% | -6.1 | +38.1 | -20.6 | -11.3 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kosuke Nagai tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 81% | 11% | 8% | -8.1 | -24.5 | +42.2 | -9.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 40% | 55% | 4% | -0.2 | -4.2 | +5.5 | -1.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Taro Suzuki | 0% | 31% | 65% | 4% | -0.7 | +17.8 | -10.6 | -6.4 |
| South 4 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,500 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 59% | 39% | 2% | -0.1 | -9.7 | +7.7 | +2.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 39% | 59% | 2% | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | +4.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 38% | 58% | 4% | +1.4 | -16.3 | +17.9 | -3.1 |