Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/17 Game 1
Nagai Kosuke finished 1st (+60.9pt). The game was decided in South 2, 4 honba: Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000, which moved Nagai Kosuke's expected points by +39.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Nagai Kosuke 1st-place chance | Suzuki Taro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Nagai Kosuke Expected pt change | Suzuki Taro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Suzuki Taro tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 25% | -16.1 | -8.1 | -9.5 | +33.8 |
| East 2 | Draw | 13% | 17% | 15% | 54% | -2.6 | -3.0 | -1.7 | +7.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 13% | 14% | 61% | -9.4 | -7.7 | +23.5 | -6.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Nagai Kosuke ron 12,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 8% | 11% | 27% | 54% | -23.2 | -0.6 | +28.3 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Draw | 2% | 7% | 50% | 41% | -1.0 | -1.8 | +7.6 | -4.8 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Draw | 2% | 6% | 58% | 35% | -2.5 | -1.5 | -3.1 | +7.2 |
| East 4, 5 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Suzuki Taro | 1% | 5% | 54% | 40% | -1.8 | +14.3 | +4.2 | -16.7 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 2,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 1% | 9% | 65% | 25% | +5.3 | -6.8 | +1.2 | +0.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 8% | 66% | 25% | +26.7 | -12.3 | -6.3 | -8.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Nagai Kosuke | 8% | 7% | 63% | 23% | -8.5 | +10.8 | -7.1 | +4.8 |
| South 2 | Draw | 4% | 11% | 56% | 29% | -1.7 | +8.6 | -3.1 | -3.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 3,000 | 4% | 16% | 53% | 28% | -3.0 | +15.4 | -7.5 | -4.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 4% | 26% | 44% | 26% | -3.1 | +11.9 | -4.8 | -4.0 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 37% | 38% | 22% | -6.7 | +38.5 | -19.3 | -12.5 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Nagai Kosuke tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 82% | 10% | 8% | -7.3 | -24.8 | +39.4 | -7.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 42% | 52% | 6% | -0.1 | -5.1 | +7.8 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Suzuki Taro | 0% | 31% | 64% | 4% | -0.9 | +17.7 | -11.0 | -5.8 |
| South 4 | Suzuki Taro ron 1,500 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 58% | 40% | 2% | 0.0 | -9.6 | +7.8 | +1.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 39% | 59% | 2% | -1.5 | -0.8 | -0.7 | +3.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,300 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 38% | 59% | 3% | +1.4 | -16.5 | +17.2 | -2.0 |