Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/17 Game 2
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+61.1pt). The game was decided in South 3: Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Ken Sonoda, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +24.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 1,100 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -4.5 | -2.2 | +1.7 | +5.0 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 22% | 22% | 28% | 29% | +1.5 | +1.1 | +10.8 | -13.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 22% | 35% | 20% | -0.7 | -4.6 | +7.0 | -1.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 22% | 20% | 39% | 19% | -2.1 | +8.6 | -4.7 | -1.8 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Aki Nikaido | 21% | 25% | 36% | 18% | +19.8 | -19.2 | +2.5 | -3.1 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 1,100 | 35% | 13% | 37% | 14% | -1.8 | -1.1 | -1.2 | +4.2 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 3,900 from Aki Nikaido | 33% | 13% | 37% | 17% | +1.1 | -17.1 | +17.8 | -1.8 |
| South 3 | Saki Kurosawa ron 7,700 from Ken Sonoda | 28% | 3% | 56% | 13% | -25.4 | +2.8 | +24.3 | -1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 3% | 1% | 90% | 7% | +15.5 | +2.7 | +0.7 | -18.9 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 4% | 0% | 93% | 3% | -2.5 | -0.9 | -2.0 | +5.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 4% | 0% | 91% | 5% | +3.7 | +9.7 | +4.0 | -17.3 |