Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/20 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +50.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,900 | 28% | 22% | 25% | 24% | +9.5 | -0.4 | -5.5 | -3.6 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 3,900 | 34% | 23% | 22% | 21% | +8.9 | -4.0 | -2.0 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 2,000 from Tojyo Rio | 40% | 20% | 21% | 19% | -0.6 | +3.0 | -0.4 | -2.1 |
| East 2 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,800 from Tojyo Rio | 40% | 21% | 20% | 19% | -0.2 | +17.3 | -1.0 | -16.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 38% | 32% | 18% | 12% | -18.0 | +16.0 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 22% | 48% | 19% | 12% | +7.9 | -3.5 | -2.1 | -2.2 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Tojyo Rio tsumo 5,200 | 28% | 44% | 18% | 10% | -1.7 | -4.5 | -10.9 | +17.2 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Nikaido Aki | 28% | 41% | 12% | 19% | -25.9 | +3.1 | +24.8 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 7,700 from Watanabe Futoshi | 13% | 44% | 26% | 17% | +28.6 | -22.2 | -5.2 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tojyo Rio ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 33% | 26% | 23% | 17% | -2.8 | -1.2 | -25.4 | +29.3 |
| South 2 | Nikaido Aki ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 29% | 24% | 11% | 37% | +23.9 | -20.8 | -3.5 | +0.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 56% | 6% | 7% | 31% | -3.4 | -3.1 | +8.5 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 51% | 7% | 12% | 31% | -19.5 | -13.8 | +50.1 | -16.9 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 26% | 3% | 51% | 21% | +0.7 | +27.2 | +4.7 | -32.7 |
| South 4 | Tojyo Rio ron 5,800 from Nikaido Aki | 22% | 11% | 60% | 7% | -31.7 | +5.8 | +5.4 | +20.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 1,000 from Tojyo Rio | 5% | 11% | 72% | 13% | +3.9 | +7.9 | +13.1 | -24.8 |