Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/20 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +53.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 24% | 24% | 24% | 28% | +11.4 | -2.9 | -3.5 | -5.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 3,900 | 33% | 22% | 22% | 23% | +12.9 | -2.2 | -6.8 | -3.9 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Rio Tojyo | 42% | 20% | 18% | 20% | -3.3 | +4.6 | +2.4 | -3.7 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,800 from Rio Tojyo | 40% | 23% | 20% | 18% | -0.4 | +15.7 | +0.3 | -15.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 38% | 33% | 19% | 10% | -15.4 | +16.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 48% | 18% | 10% | +5.6 | -3.6 | +0.1 | -2.1 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Rio Tojyo tsumo 5,200 | 27% | 44% | 19% | 9% | -4.0 | -4.4 | -11.5 | +19.8 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Aki Nikaido | 26% | 43% | 13% | 19% | -23.3 | +3.9 | +21.2 | -1.9 |
| South 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 7,700 from Futoshi Watanabe | 13% | 47% | 23% | 16% | +29.0 | -25.8 | -1.9 | -1.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Rio Tojyo ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 35% | 24% | 23% | 18% | -0.8 | -1.7 | -25.7 | +28.2 |
| South 2 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 32% | 22% | 10% | 37% | +20.9 | -19.1 | -2.6 | +0.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 6% | 8% | 32% | -1.6 | -3.0 | +6.1 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 52% | 6% | 10% | 32% | -20.0 | -14.6 | +53.0 | -18.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 27% | 3% | 52% | 19% | -0.2 | +28.7 | +4.2 | -32.7 |
| South 4 | Rio Tojyo ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 21% | 11% | 62% | 7% | -29.9 | +5.1 | +3.5 | +21.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 1,000 from Rio Tojyo | 6% | 10% | 70% | 13% | +2.8 | +8.1 | +14.2 | -25.0 |