Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/21 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in East 1: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +21.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Geki Shimoishi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Geki Shimoishi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 7,800 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | +21.8 | -7.4 | -8.0 | -6.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 6,000 | 39% | 21% | 19% | 21% | +21.7 | -9.4 | -5.8 | -6.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 59% | 13% | 14% | 14% | -1.1 | +6.4 | -0.4 | -4.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 59% | 15% | 14% | 13% | +2.9 | -1.7 | +0.1 | -1.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 63% | 13% | 13% | 11% | -0.4 | +1.9 | -6.7 | +5.2 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 2,000 | 64% | 14% | 8% | 14% | +11.9 | -1.5 | -2.0 | -8.4 |
| South 1 | Geki Shimoishi tsumo 12,000 | 79% | 9% | 6% | 6% | -14.5 | -9.1 | +36.6 | -13.0 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 8% | 25% | 5% | -13.1 | +36.7 | -13.0 | -10.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Geki Shimoishi ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 45% | 32% | 19% | 3% | +4.9 | -6.1 | +1.3 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 54% | 24% | 19% | 3% | +1.1 | -4.3 | +5.6 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Geki Shimoishi ron 1,500 from Kenji Katsumata | 54% | 20% | 23% | 3% | -7.6 | -1.5 | +9.8 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Geki Shimoishi | 45% | 21% | 32% | 3% | +14.1 | -5.1 | -8.3 | -0.7 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,300 from Kazunori Takizawa | 66% | 13% | 18% | 2% | +14.6 | +9.9 | -19.0 | -5.6 |