Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/21 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+54.5pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +20.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 7,800 | 27% | 23% | 26% | 24% | +19.3 | -7.2 | -6.1 | -6.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 6,000 | 41% | 19% | 20% | 20% | +20.0 | -6.3 | -7.9 | -5.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 59% | 14% | 14% | 14% | +0.2 | +7.1 | -1.1 | -6.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 59% | 17% | 13% | 11% | +2.1 | -3.8 | 0.0 | +1.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Draw | 63% | 12% | 13% | 12% | -0.9 | +2.8 | -5.5 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 2,000 | 62% | 14% | 10% | 14% | +12.7 | -1.3 | -3.3 | -8.2 |
| South 1 | Shimoishi Geki tsumo 12,000 | 79% | 9% | 5% | 7% | -14.1 | -11.0 | +37.6 | -12.4 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 63% | 7% | 25% | 5% | -13.3 | +38.1 | -12.5 | -12.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Shimoishi Geki ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 46% | 31% | 20% | 3% | +3.3 | -4.8 | +2.4 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Draw | 51% | 25% | 21% | 3% | +1.7 | -4.4 | +4.2 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shimoishi Geki ron 1,500 from Katsumata Kenji | 52% | 21% | 24% | 2% | -7.3 | -3.0 | +10.2 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,000 from Shimoishi Geki | 44% | 20% | 33% | 3% | +13.5 | -3.0 | -9.3 | -1.2 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,300 from Takizawa Kazunori | 65% | 16% | 17% | 2% | +15.5 | +8.4 | -18.4 | -5.5 |