Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/23 Game 1
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+78.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 36,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +69.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shimoishi Geki 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Shimoishi Geki Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shimoishi Geki ron 48,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 25% | 23% | 25% | 27% | +87.9 | -79.6 | -4.4 | -4.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 5,200 | 90% | 0% | 5% | 5% | -2.5 | +6.1 | -1.8 | -1.8 |
| East 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 8,000 | 92% | 0% | 3% | 5% | -3.0 | -6.0 | -4.6 | +13.5 |
| East 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 88% | 0% | 4% | 8% | +2.6 | 0.0 | -4.2 | +1.6 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 36,000 | 92% | 0% | 2% | 6% | -40.3 | -12.2 | -17.3 | +69.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 2,000 | 24% | 0% | 1% | 75% | -1.3 | +3.0 | -0.3 | -1.4 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 1,100 | 22% | 0% | 0% | 77% | -5.9 | -0.9 | -0.5 | +7.3 |
| South 2 | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 12,000 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 88% | -3.8 | +13.8 | -5.4 | -4.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,000 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 12% | 0% | 0% | 87% | -2.4 | -3.5 | +0.8 | +5.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 5% | 0% | 0% | 94% | +2.7 | -0.9 | -1.6 | -0.2 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 4% | 0% | 0% | 96% | -2.1 | +9.7 | +0.7 | -8.3 |