Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/23 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+93.9pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +34.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Suzuki Daisuke 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Suzuki Daisuke Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 26% | 26% | 25% | 23% | +4.9 | -6.2 | -4.5 | +5.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 23% | 22% | 27% | -18.4 | -8.0 | +32.6 | -6.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 15% | 16% | 46% | 22% | -3.7 | +7.5 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 13% | 20% | 45% | 21% | -1.8 | -4.1 | -0.3 | +6.2 |
| East 3 | Sonoda Ken tsumo 6,000 | 14% | 17% | 45% | 24% | -5.8 | -5.4 | +16.9 | -5.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 12% | 63% | 17% | -8.1 | -7.5 | -18.5 | +34.1 |
| East 4 | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 6% | 9% | 40% | 45% | -19.7 | -0.7 | -5.0 | +25.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 4% | 25% | 70% | -1.4 | -1.2 | -6.9 | +9.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Suzuki Daisuke ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 1% | 3% | 16% | 80% | -3.5 | +35.0 | -29.6 | -2.0 |
| South 1 | Katsumata Kenji ron 8,000 from Suzuki Daisuke | 1% | 14% | 4% | 81% | -3.2 | -15.2 | +3.9 | +14.5 |
| South 2 | Sonoda Ken ron 1,000 from Suzuki Daisuke | 0% | 3% | 3% | 94% | -0.5 | -2.6 | +1.4 | +1.7 |
| South 3 | Suzuki Daisuke ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 0% | 0% | 2% | 98% | -8.7 | +14.8 | -7.1 | +1.0 |
| South 4 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.4 | -4.0 | -3.5 | +11.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.0 | -4.2 | -4.2 | +12.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +8.7 | +2.5 | -1.3 | -9.8 |