Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/23 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+93.9pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +33.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Daisuke Suzuki 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Daisuke Suzuki Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +4.7 | -5.2 | -3.3 | +3.8 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 28% | 22% | 22% | 28% | -20.0 | -6.4 | +33.8 | -7.4 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 17% | 48% | 21% | -1.4 | +6.2 | -2.0 | -2.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 14% | 19% | 46% | 20% | -2.8 | -3.7 | 0.0 | +6.5 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 6,000 | 13% | 17% | 46% | 23% | -5.2 | -4.4 | +14.3 | -4.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 12% | 61% | 19% | -5.6 | -9.5 | -17.9 | +33.0 |
| East 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 7% | 8% | 41% | 44% | -22.6 | +3.9 | -6.5 | +25.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 3,900 | 1% | 6% | 24% | 69% | -1.9 | -3.1 | -4.4 | +9.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Daisuke Suzuki ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 1% | 4% | 16% | 78% | -3.0 | +33.2 | -28.7 | -1.5 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 8,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 1% | 13% | 5% | 81% | -2.8 | -14.1 | +2.4 | +14.5 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Daisuke Suzuki | 0% | 3% | 2% | 95% | -0.7 | -3.0 | +2.3 | +1.4 |
| South 3 | Daisuke Suzuki ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 0% | 1% | 2% | 98% | -8.8 | +15.6 | -7.9 | +1.2 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.9 | -4.5 | -3.6 | +12.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -4.3 | -4.2 | -3.7 | +12.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +8.7 | +2.6 | -1.6 | -9.7 |