Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2025-26 Semifinals

4/27 Game 1

Asai Takaki finished 1st (+92.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio, which moved Asai Takaki's expected points by +30.8.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 2South 1End● Asai Takaki● Hagiwara Masato● Tojyo Rio● Watanabe Futoshi0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Asai● Hagiwara● Tojyo● Watanabe
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Asai Takaki
1st-place chance
Tojyo Rio
1st-place chance
Watanabe Futoshi
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
Asai Takaki
Expected pt change
Tojyo Rio
Expected pt change
Watanabe Futoshi
Expected pt change
East 1Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,00026%23%24%26%-18.3-5.9-7.4+31.5
East 2Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio13%17%19%51%-0.6+30.8-29.6-0.6
East 2, 1 honbaAsai Takaki tsumo 7,80012%35%6%47%-6.4+18.8-3.5-8.9
East 2, 2 honbaAsai Takaki tsumo 7,8007%54%5%33%-4.7+15.1-3.8-6.6
East 2, 3 honbaAsai Takaki ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi5%69%3%23%+2.7+23.9+0.5-27.1
East 2, 4 honbaAsai Takaki ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato2%92%2%4%-10.5+8.5+3.0-1.0
East 2, 5 honbaAsai Takaki ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio1%96%1%2%+3.2+4.6-8.6+0.7
East 2, 6 honbaDraw1%97%0%2%-3.4-0.9-1.4+5.7
East 3, 7 honbaWatanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio1%97%0%2%+1.2-1.0-18.1+17.9
East 4Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Watanabe Futoshi0%95%0%5%+11.9+2.5-2.2-12.2
South 1Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,0000%98%0%1%+20.9-5.2-5.0-10.7
South 1, 1 honbaDraw2%97%0%1%+1.2-1.5-1.2+1.4
South 1, 2 honbaHagiwara Masato tsumo 1,5003%96%0%1%+5.8-1.6-1.2-3.0
South 1, 3 honbaHagiwara Masato tsumo 3,0003%95%0%1%+8.7-1.8-2.5-4.4
South 1, 4 honbaAsai Takaki ron 5,200 from Hagiwara Masato5%94%0%1%-11.1+8.8-0.3+2.6
South 2Draw0%99%0%0%-0.1-2.1+3.7-1.5
South 3, 1 honbaHagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio0%99%0%1%+8.4+1.0-7.1-2.3
South 4Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi0%100%0%0%+4.1+0.5+0.7-5.3

All 2025-26 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)