Game · 2025-26 Semifinal Series
4/27 Game 1
Takaki Asai finished 1st (+92.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Takaki Asai ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo, which moved Takaki Asai's expected points by +29.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Rio Tojyo 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Rio Tojyo Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -16.3 | -7.7 | -10.4 | +34.4 |
| East 2 | Takaki Asai ron 12,000 from Rio Tojyo | 13% | 18% | 16% | 53% | +0.3 | +29.3 | -28.4 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 7,800 | 11% | 36% | 6% | 48% | -6.3 | +19.8 | -3.1 | -10.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 7,800 | 8% | 55% | 5% | 32% | -3.8 | +16.4 | -4.7 | -8.0 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Takaki Asai ron 12,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 5% | 71% | 2% | 22% | +1.9 | +22.2 | +2.5 | -26.6 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Takaki Asai ron 3,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 2% | 91% | 2% | 5% | -10.6 | +7.5 | +2.1 | +1.0 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Takaki Asai ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 1% | 95% | 1% | 4% | +0.8 | +6.4 | -8.3 | +1.2 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -0.3 | -1.8 | -4.2 | +6.3 |
| East 3, 7 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 97% | 0% | 2% | +0.2 | +0.8 | -16.0 | +15.0 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 96% | 0% | 3% | +11.6 | +0.7 | -1.1 | -11.2 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +20.5 | -4.2 | -5.9 | -10.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 97% | 0% | 1% | +1.0 | -1.6 | -0.5 | +1.1 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 1,500 | 2% | 96% | 0% | 2% | +6.5 | -2.1 | -1.9 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 3,000 | 3% | 95% | 0% | 2% | +8.0 | -1.6 | -2.9 | -3.5 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Takaki Asai ron 5,200 from Masato Hagiwara | 6% | 93% | 0% | 1% | -11.2 | +8.5 | +0.5 | +2.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +0.8 | -1.3 | +2.6 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Rio Tojyo | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +7.5 | +0.4 | -5.5 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 2,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +4.3 | +0.4 | +0.5 | -5.3 |