Game · 2025-26 Semifinals
4/27 Game 1
Asai Takaki finished 1st (+92.8pt). The game was decided in East 2: Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio, which moved Asai Takaki's expected points by +30.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Tojyo Rio 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Tojyo Rio Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 23% | 24% | 26% | -18.3 | -5.9 | -7.4 | +31.5 |
| East 2 | Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Tojyo Rio | 13% | 17% | 19% | 51% | -0.6 | +30.8 | -29.6 | -0.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 35% | 6% | 47% | -6.4 | +18.8 | -3.5 | -8.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 7,800 | 7% | 54% | 5% | 33% | -4.7 | +15.1 | -3.8 | -6.6 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 5% | 69% | 3% | 23% | +2.7 | +23.9 | +0.5 | -27.1 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Asai Takaki ron 3,900 from Hagiwara Masato | 2% | 92% | 2% | 4% | -10.5 | +8.5 | +3.0 | -1.0 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Asai Takaki ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio | 1% | 96% | 1% | 2% | +3.2 | +4.6 | -8.6 | +0.7 |
| East 2, 6 honba | Draw | 1% | 97% | 0% | 2% | -3.4 | -0.9 | -1.4 | +5.7 |
| East 3, 7 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Tojyo Rio | 1% | 97% | 0% | 2% | +1.2 | -1.0 | -18.1 | +17.9 |
| East 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Watanabe Futoshi | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | +11.9 | +2.5 | -2.2 | -12.2 |
| South 1 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +20.9 | -5.2 | -5.0 | -10.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Draw | 2% | 97% | 0% | 1% | +1.2 | -1.5 | -1.2 | +1.4 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 1,500 | 3% | 96% | 0% | 1% | +5.8 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -3.0 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 3,000 | 3% | 95% | 0% | 1% | +8.7 | -1.8 | -2.5 | -4.4 |
| South 1, 4 honba | Asai Takaki ron 5,200 from Hagiwara Masato | 5% | 94% | 0% | 1% | -11.1 | +8.8 | -0.3 | +2.6 |
| South 2 | Draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -0.1 | -2.1 | +3.7 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Tojyo Rio | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +8.4 | +1.0 | -7.1 | -2.3 |
| South 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 2,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +4.1 | +0.5 | +0.7 | -5.3 |